Warriors/Lakers Game 4 will likely tell us the series winner.
Game 3 was another monster defensive performance from the Lakers. They've had quite a few wins with paltry three point shooting which is incredibly old school. As previously stated last month, regardless of who wins it all, metrics on defense and rebounding still greatly define post-season victory.
Lakers decided to put Reaves on Curry, Vanderbilt on Draymond Green, Russell on Thompson, and and Davis on JaMychal Green. The success of these tweaks did a couple of good things:
- So as long as JaMychal Green isn't prolific with his shot Davis/James can feel safe to camp in the paint or roam.
- Vanderbilt can switch the Draymond/Curry pnr, and is long and fast enough to bother Curry, drop-off passes in space, and contest Green or rely on Davis for help.
- Reaves at least has strength against Curry, and if cross-matched can potentially draw fouls on him
- Russell has not shown defensive weaknesses yet, but it certainly helps that he's scoring against Warrior guards.
- With Davis either using his speed and length to bother Draymond/Curry, or roam while on the other Green, we can effectively say the Draymond/Curry pnr is in trouble of being limited.
The refereeing of this game was also a bit different, clearly in favor of the Lakers' aggression to the basket.
I wouldn't say the Warriors are down and out yet still, but when it comes to examining just the three games, they've made more wholesale adjustments thus far, they've slightly been the ones with a shorter rotation, and their bread and butter once again has been sniffed out. Expect there to be more straight up Curry isos and him attempting to individually dominate whoever is on him. Kerr has to hit the panic button at this point and just let Curry cook and pass out open guys like game 7 in the last series. We also need to see more offensively from Wiggins. He should definitely be trying to test LeBron's capacity for individual defense as well as going at the Laker guards since he has size over absolutely all of them. I'd try more Curry/Wiggins pnr even if LeBron is on him. People sometimes forget Wiggins is a true capable scorer in his own right. I'd also think about anything that will make Davis work on the defensive end... perhaps Curry wants to try to get Davis switched on him. It's a gamble that may be worth taking.
Meanwhile, Lakers still have another offensive ceiling we just haven't seen and thats LeBron hunting for Curry and other Warrior guards which he did a little bit in game 3. Any additional offensive juice from the likes of LeBron will tip the series in the Lakers' favor.
Celtics/Sixers... I truly think Sixers have what it takes to beat them. They still may lose, but the way the series is unfolding is unlike the previous two. What it seems to come down to is how well Embiid/Harden (and sometimes Maxey) perform in isolation versus Brown/Tatum's own isolation. Celtics get a bit of a bonus when it comes to transition as that's a strength they have that is one of Philadelphia's main weaknesses. On the other hand, Celtics have been woeful in crunch time compared to Philadelphia.
Essentially, if Harden can continue to score on Williams, Horford, Brogdon, and Brown, Sixers will be in the game. Brown/Tatum essentially do the same thing. It's just a matter of which duo (or sometimes Maxey) is more efficient and has better shotmakers. That is a variable we can't foresee. At least in previous matchups, there was no one on the perimeter who could match Tatum/Brown for Philadelphia. Now they have guys who can at least get hot and help Embiid out with spacing or whenever he doesn't have it during a stretch.
). Ideally, we don't have to use Tristan Thompson haha.