Sports NBA Thread: 2022-2023 Season

[PresidentBubblebeam]

Feeling like the only one who likes the Warriors in this series. Here's what I'm thinking:

• Curry's always a threat to go off. The man just dropped a 50 burger with the season on the line. He could easily be the best player in this series.
• Draymond and Looney are a couple of smart defenders that can slow down AD. Draymond's done a pretty good job on AD in the past.
• Wiggins is a decent wing to throw at LeBron. I don't expect him to lock Bron down or anything, but he's also not an offensive liability like Brooks.
• Kerr is a battle-tested coach. The jury's still out on Ham for me, but I trust Kerr to make the right adjustments over the course of this series.
• The Warriors conquered their road demons with two big wins in Sacramento, but they'll have the luxury of HCA for this series. That's an important factor.

I do worry about Klay and Poole, for obvious reasons, but I think if they can make enough of their shots, the Warriors should be alright. Still, I was dead wrong about the Lakers. Their triumph over the Grizzlies proved to me that they're legit and they can definitely hang with any team still standing in these playoffs. In the end, I'm favoring Golden State, but it's anyone's series.

 

[DerrickRose]

I had a feeling Harden would surprise early.

 

[awyp]

nuggets are cooking,

i predict lakers will win today. im going with a 37 (over) combined rebound + points for lebron

i think jalen brunson goes over 24.5 points, i think kevin love goes over 9.5 points (i think if jimmy doesn't play knicks win)

 

[phoopes]

I had a feeling Harden would surprise early.

I think because we stole Game 1 in Boston, Embiid gets held out for Game 2 and makes his return in Game 3 at home. If we lost Game 1 though I think he would be back in Game 2. His health is so important and I think the fact that we were able to start the series later (thanks Trae Young) and steal Game 1 means that we can afford to hold him out for one more game and see a return in Game 3.

...I'm still pessimistic about the series though just because it's Boston lol

 

[DerrickRose]

I think because we stole Game 1 in Boston, Embiid gets held out for Game 2 and makes his return in Game 3 at home. If we lost Game 1 though I think he would be back in Game 2. His health is so important and I think the fact that we were able to start the series later (thanks Trae Young) and steal Game 1 means that we can afford to hold him out for one more game and see a return in Game 3.

...I'm still pessimistic about the series though just because it's Boston lol

I don't normally make Game 1 judgments but I'll say this: what I saw from Philly was kinda promising compared to past matchups. Think about it: this is only the second playoff win they have against this team, and it's without Embiid on the road. Additionally, Celtics outrebounded you, shot 59% and got to the line more. A lot of it was taking advantage of Horford. That's exactly what Curry did in last year's finals. Horford is a part of many lineups. Even when Horford wasn't the target, Maxey and Harden still were getting by guys. It certainly doesn't seem as lopsided in year's past as expected.

(6) Golden State Warriors versus (7) Los Angeles Lakers

“Now, if you want to crown them, then crown their ass! But they are who we thought they were! And we let them off the hook!” – Draymond Green, after Game 1 loss in the 2022 Finals

This is a very interesting series. Both teams have weaknesses and strengths they can use against each other. Golden State appears to be favored and I’d attribute that mostly to recency bias of Round 1. It’s truly hard to go against the man who scored 50 in a road game 7 win.

We can start with the stars of the series. Curry, James, and Davis. I would say peak James and Davis at the very least would equal Curry’s production, and maybe sometimes is greater. The issue is Davis and James hit different peaks throughout their games. They almost never peak at the same time, and that is probably what it’s going to take to beat Golden State. Curry can literally dominate a team by himself.

What can Los Angeles do against Curry? Vanderbilt is their best shot and is one of the key things I’ll be looking for going into this series. Vanderbilt’s tradeoff in offense for defense significantly affects Los Angeles’ chances to win. Green is one of the best help defenders in the league and he’s guaranteed to play free safety off Vanderbilt. If Los Angeles can manage to stymy Curry and get good offense with Vanderbilt on the floor, that is a major win for Los Angeles. I have my doubts on them being able to do both, but that is what it would require. The only other defender who may be able to stick with Curry is Schroeder due to foot speed, but he certainly wouldn’t do enough alone to impact Curry the way I think is necessary to win. I give Schroeder much credit for his improvement in defense the past few seasons, but his size still makes him susceptible.

Thompson/Reaves is another interesting matchup on the guard front. Is Reaves ready for a matchup like this? He did fairly well in this matchup during the regular season. He’d have to be a bonafide defender to be trusted on Thompson over a series. I don’t quite know if I’m ready to give that title to someone’s first playoff run against one of the best shooters of all-time. In fact, all Los Angeles’ guards will be tested and hunted on offense from Golden State. Schroeder/Reaves will likely perform better than the likes of Russell. I expect to see more minutes given to Schroeder/Reaves, which once again is a tradeoff Los Angeles must take in offense for more defense. They were saved from Russell’s hot shooting in the previous series, but when you decrease the ceiling of the team’s offense by putting more hopes in defensively viable options, you’re putting that much more pressure on James and Davis to score, or role players to shoot. Once again, it can happen, but we all know Los Angeles’ offensive ceiling tends to be woeful.

So, that leaves the frontline of James and Davis to make up for any possible difference there. We can expect Davis to individually score fine against the likes of Looney and possibly even Green. I know Looney grabbed a lot of boards last series, but 1) that was against Sabonis and 2) much of it has to do with the opposing center busy helping his respective team's guards. Davis won't get his rebounding numbers if the guards don't contain. That's simply all to say if he is losing the rebounding battle to Kevon Looney, I wouldn't blame Davis.

James and Green are virtually playing the same role on defense as James will likely be on Green to play free safety. They’ll likely be matched up a lot on both ends in addition to Wiggins having time as well. James will want to hunt the Golden State guards, but after watching Luka Doncic try this same thing last year in the western conference finals, I don’t see it being as effective as it was many years ago. Golden State’s loss of Porter doesn’t help with this, so Golden State will need to be very cohesive to prevent James’ post-scoring. I would be very fascinated to see LeBron at this age still put the scare in defenders.

The winner will essentially come down to who will need to make less changes and adjustments overall in order to remain honest to their team identity. Golden State is faster, has better shooters, better player movement, and more continuity. Los Angeles has more size, strength, paint defense and paint scoring, and rebounding. Who will need to change the least? My bet is the team with the best player and best shooters.

Golden State wins if: Curry is comfortable on offense. Los Angeles can’t keep up with Golden State due to Vanderbilt’s inability to shoot or guard. Los Angeles’ shooting is terrible outside the paint. Davis and James can’t maintain the same production consistently as Curry.

Los Angeles wins if: Nobody can hide from James in the post. Davis and James together are too big and strong in the paint and dominate the glass. Vanderbilt and James are menaces on defense, and Curry is reasonably slowed down even in high pick and roll.

Warriors in six

 

[Surfy]

Quite impressed with the lakers adjustments in the 2nd half last night - seemed like they started to hedge a lot more on the high PnR to prevent the pull up 3 DerrickRose did you notice this too? Ever since Darvin pulled AD out in the middle of the 3rd of G5 vs. Memphis, he’s been pressing the right buttons.

Really need to see Lebrons jumper come back and if not, he needs to be solely attacking the rim where he leads the league in FG % this playoffs.

 

[DC]

 

[awyp]

James are menaces on defense

 

[DerrickRose]

Quite impressed with the lakers adjustments in the 2nd half last night - seemed like they started to hedge a lot more on the high PnR to prevent the pull up 3 DerrickRose did you notice this too? Ever since Darvon pulled AD out in the middle of the 3rd of G5 vs. Memphis, he’s been pressing the right buttons.

I took a look at all the missed shots from the Warriors today and that is correct. Davis would come up level of the screener and use his length on either Thompson or Curry. Additionally, Vanderbilt did an excellent job navigating screens and sometimes didn't need him. They also helped off constantly from non shooters Payton II, Green, and Looney. James is their second line of defense if Davis was out of the paint. There were a lot or blocked shots between the both of them, so even when the Warriors drove, they failed miserably. In that game, they needed to shoot an extremely high three point percentage to win... and the Lakers still made 15 less threes and won. They only made six total.

Lakers are not out of the woods yet however. Warriors are still reeling from an emotional game 7 last series. I'd want to see how they handle the Warriors' smaller, more spaced lineups. I want to also see how they handle a Curry PnR closer to the logo.

Really need to see Lebrons jumper come back and if not, he needs to be solely attacking the rim where he leads the league in FG % this playoffs.

They left him open for three a lot which surprised me. One of these games, he's going to attempt to punish the Warriors for being small. So as long as he's guarded by Wiggins or Draymond, they'd probably prefer Davis handle scoring for now. Warriors had a 3 guard lineup out there and James still stood pat.

 

[Surfy]

I want to also see how they handle a Curry PnR closer to the logo.

Waiting for this as that is what killed the Cavs in those Warriors series. Sets up an instant 4-on-3, assuming you look to get the ball out of Steph's hands with Draymond usually catching the ball off the hard hedge and then making the right play to find the open man or simple bounce pass for an easy two.

 

[DerrickRose]

Lol what's this translate to?

 

[awyp]

Lol what's this translate to?

Oh I think Lebron is a below average defender that's all. (at this age at least), he puts a lot of effort on offense and gets beat on the dribble

 

[DerrickRose]

You are right that LeBron's individual defense is below average. His help defense though is another story. His basketball IQ is very similar to Green, and he chooses to pick his spots more. Last night, he had 3 blocked shots.

He won't stop an individual player or even man the paint on his own, but a great help defender. That's pretty much all he needs to do since there are other defenders and Davis in the paint.

 

[awyp]

congrats to the mvp joel embiid on the terrible welcome back loss to the celtics

 

[DerrickRose]

Doc should just never play Niang ever again.

 

[Sijih]

You are right that LeBron's individual defense is below average. His help defense though is another story. His basketball IQ is very similar to Green, and he chooses to pick his spots more. Last night, he had 3 blocked shots.

He won't stop an individual player or even man the paint on his own, but a great help defender. That's pretty much all he needs to do since there are other defenders and Davis in the paint.

I've noticed that I've always been quite bad at the eye test for defense exactly because of things like this. its exacerbated by the fact that I've stopped watching the NBA as much in recent years, but NBA coverages are so much more complex than even dedicated fans can hope to fully and truly understand (and I'm not a dedicated fan).

it's pointing out the obvious to say that defense isn't just jrue holiday-esque being able to stop an opposing all star from taking good shots or driving or whatever. but, besides for in truly stellar and self-apparent cases like peak kawhi or chris paul, I know that I personally (and probably some other people too) tend to underestimate the way that good bbiq matters. staying in the passing lane is 90% of the job whereas actually deflecting the pass is only the other 10%, and then there's stuff like picking whether you go over or under screens, knowing when to go for steals, knowing if help will come, knowing when to help and how much, anticipating the offense...

i was reading this old ringer article because I wanted to remind myself of how lebron went about the curry mismatch in 2018 and I found this (very low-res) image that I find hysterical. can you even call this a lebron - curry matchup at this point? it's impossible to look at this defense without attempting to understand the scheme as a whole

anyways this ramble didn't really have a point nor was it in response to anything you said. I was just quoting you because your post was the one that got me thinking

anyways, I've only had time to watch highlights rather than do any true due diligence by watching the full game, but I was surprised with how schroder held up. you have to wonder if keeping up with curry in game 1 will leave him at 99% next game, 90% or 50%... will be interesting to see

 

[DerrickRose]

One thing we shouldn't forget about LeBron: he is playing injured and should really be out having surgery. He may or may not dominate offensively in the way we expect other than shooting, but the Lakers still win games.

 

[WilhelmTheOkay]

Budenholzer has been fired. First thoughts are that the Bucks are either trying to protect Charles Lee before anyone else can really interview him or go for Nurse before any other good team can get him.

 

[Surfy]

Waiting for this as that is what killed the Cavs in those Warriors series. Sets up an instant 4-on-3, assuming you look to get the ball out of Steph's hands with Draymond usually catching the ball off the hard hedge and then making the right play to find the open man or simple bounce pass for an easy two.

Whew boy did they get KILLED on this action. It’s quite clear they need to go back to their G1 coverage of Steph and if he gets 28-39 fine, that’s seems preferable than letting everyone else get wide open looks.

Reaves was also quite bad defensively last night and couldn’t stay with Klay for what seemed like every other possession.

Lebron’s jumper coming back is reassuring but just as soon as that came back, AD aggression and dominance left. Won’t overreact since the Dubs generally do this at least once a series but hoping to see a complete game from everyone Saturday night.

 

[PresidentBubblebeam]

The issue is Davis and James hit different peaks throughout their games. They almost never peak at the same time, and that is probably what it’s going to take to beat Golden State.

This is proving to be very accurate.

 

[awyp]

Budenholzer and Nurse being fired after winning a title in the last 5 years is wild to me.

 

[DerrickRose]

Warriors responded very strongly in game 2. They played at a much faster pace by pushing even on made baskets, played more shooters on the floor allowing more space (50% from three), and Curry got into pnr much earlier in possessions while passing out of quick traps (12 assists).

On the Lakers’ end, they seemed gassed and were likely psychologically affected by the refereeing. They got to the line less, got outrebounded, and the air seemed the leave the team as soon as Thompson got hot.

Here are the questions I have for the Lakers:

1) I don’t think Reaves on Thompson is salvageable, but if not him, then who? Schroeder lacks the size, Russell is Russell on defense, LeBron lacks the stamina, and Vanderbilt is busy on Curry (who by the way had a great game despite that). Are they able to stop both Curry and Thompson?

2) Davis is the #1 barometer for whether Lakers will win or lose this series. Defensively, Davis isn’t entirely responsible for the Warriors’ hot shooting, but if he’s not successful offensively (or the Lakers as a team) or getting to the line, the Lakers are unable to have a set defense. Only Philadelphia statistically has been worse in transition than them as far as teams remaining in the playoffs, so their best solution is probably for Davis to figure out his matchup with Draymond. There were more Draymond minutes than Looney minutes this time around. Draymond matches his speed and has a stronger center of gravity to bump him out of his spots. All Davis has over him is size, and if he can’t take advantage of his size, it’s going to be a long series for the Lakers.

3) LeBron might want to start matchup hunting for Warrior guards if the Laker guards are not performing well offensively. Davis can’t be the only major scorer for this team. I still don’t know if LeBron has that kind of capacity this year, but it would keep the game in their pace if he’s successful with it.

4) Also, how did Lakers get outrebounded when Warriors went smaller? Very bizarre, but perhaps the Lakers simply weren’t ready for the speed on the floor.

Overall, I think we can expect to see the likely winner of future games dependent on the pace. If Warriors are getting up and down, Lakers will be worn out by halftime. Your best defense against Curry and Klay is literally keeping a body on them, and that's harder when they run loose every other possession. If Lakers are running successful offense and successful at drawing fouls, they at least have a chance of starting Davis closer to the basket and affecting the Warriors with their size.

We are witnessing what could be classified as 90s basketball vs 2010s basketball. This is the most fascinating series of Round 2 for me.

 

[awyp]

Jimmy coming back and putting in work after an injury is just crazy. Man I really want to see a Miami Heat vs Lakers rematch at this rate

 

[awyp]

like my defense and all, but wow this 4th game (Nuggets vs Suns) has been a really fun game to watch, Booker, Durant, and Jokic would not miss.

 

[DerrickRose]

Warriors/Lakers Game 4 will likely tell us the series winner.

Game 3 was another monster defensive performance from the Lakers. They've had quite a few wins with paltry three point shooting which is incredibly old school. As previously stated last month, regardless of who wins it all, metrics on defense and rebounding still greatly define post-season victory.

Lakers decided to put Reaves on Curry, Vanderbilt on Draymond Green, Russell on Thompson, and and Davis on JaMychal Green. The success of these tweaks did a couple of good things:

- So as long as JaMychal Green isn't prolific with his shot Davis/James can feel safe to camp in the paint or roam.

- Vanderbilt can switch the Draymond/Curry pnr, and is long and fast enough to bother Curry, drop-off passes in space, and contest Green or rely on Davis for help.

- Reaves at least has strength against Curry, and if cross-matched can potentially draw fouls on him

- Russell has not shown defensive weaknesses yet, but it certainly helps that he's scoring against Warrior guards.

- With Davis either using his speed and length to bother Draymond/Curry, or roam while on the other Green, we can effectively say the Draymond/Curry pnr is in trouble of being limited.

The refereeing of this game was also a bit different, clearly in favor of the Lakers' aggression to the basket.

I wouldn't say the Warriors are down and out yet still, but when it comes to examining just the three games, they've made more wholesale adjustments thus far, they've slightly been the ones with a shorter rotation, and their bread and butter once again has been sniffed out. Expect there to be more straight up Curry isos and him attempting to individually dominate whoever is on him. Kerr has to hit the panic button at this point and just let Curry cook and pass out open guys like game 7 in the last series. We also need to see more offensively from Wiggins. He should definitely be trying to test LeBron's capacity for individual defense as well as going at the Laker guards since he has size over absolutely all of them. I'd try more Curry/Wiggins pnr even if LeBron is on him. People sometimes forget Wiggins is a true capable scorer in his own right. I'd also think about anything that will make Davis work on the defensive end... perhaps Curry wants to try to get Davis switched on him. It's a gamble that may be worth taking.

Meanwhile, Lakers still have another offensive ceiling we just haven't seen and thats LeBron hunting for Curry and other Warrior guards which he did a little bit in game 3. Any additional offensive juice from the likes of LeBron will tip the series in the Lakers' favor.

Celtics/Sixers... I truly think Sixers have what it takes to beat them. They still may lose, but the way the series is unfolding is unlike the previous two. What it seems to come down to is how well Embiid/Harden (and sometimes Maxey) perform in isolation versus Brown/Tatum's own isolation. Celtics get a bit of a bonus when it comes to transition as that's a strength they have that is one of Philadelphia's main weaknesses. On the other hand, Celtics have been woeful in crunch time compared to Philadelphia.

Essentially, if Harden can continue to score on Williams, Horford, Brogdon, and Brown, Sixers will be in the game. Brown/Tatum essentially do the same thing. It's just a matter of which duo (or sometimes Maxey) is more efficient and has better shotmakers. That is a variable we can't foresee. At least in previous matchups, there was no one on the perimeter who could match Tatum/Brown for Philadelphia. Now they have guys who can at least get hot and help Embiid out with spacing or whenever he doesn't have it during a stretch.