Sports NBA Thread: 2022-2023 Season

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As the Lakers/Grizzlies shifts to Los Angeles, the next two games assuming Ja Morant comes back will be interesting. When Morant wasn’t playing in game 2, the offensive gameplan seemed a bit more intentional. Tillman succeeded the way he did primarily because of the attention Luke, Bane, and Jones would get off handoffs. Tillman took advantage of the space and small slip-ups. Their secondary guys succeeded against a half-court Laker defense without Morant. JJJ was nowhere near foul trouble and they came out on top in rebounding by a smidge. If they can replicate those efforts on the road, I’d favor the Grizzlies.

On the Lakers side, their non AD minutes have been very bad, and LeBron looks gassed already and is clearly playing through injury. Their role-players are still good, but not exceptional. They went at Kennard as much as possible, but the game never fell out of reach. Their roleplayers so far just seem to come and go.

Expect Jenkins to make a concentrated effort to get AD out of the paint by any means; his defensive presence is really the only thing stopping the Grizzlies from absolutely tearing apart the opposition. Maybe more JJJ at the five? Dillon did a decent job defending AD in spots as well. Perhaps once Morant comes back, they can roll out high screen and roll with Morant and AD’s man. LeBron can still man the paint by himself sometimes, but he’s 38. Rather challenge LeBron and Vanderbilt than AD at this point. We’ll see how both teams adjust in game 3. Also, Dillon Brooks is bold as hell.

Suns/Clippers is all about math now. Suns are doubling down on their pull-up twos, and that’s the most striking difference between game 1 and 2. When the starters are making twos, they’ll win. When Clippers are making threes and/or getting to the line, they win. The Suns lack of depth is apparent, so they no longer look like contenders to me. They’re going into this with house money at this point, but this series without PG is still winnable.

If the Suns can adjust to the physicality and find a doubling scheme for Kawhi, they should be fine. Kawhi looks to be the best player in the series thus far, but we’ll see how the workload affects his efficiency as the series goes on. Suns don’t have a clear edge in anything outside of midrange efficiency. It’s weird to see that as a winning formula for a series, so there is a chance the Suns go down here.

I liked the adjustment for the Cavaliers in Game 2. More minutes for Levert at the 3 and a more aggressive Garland. Double Brunson with their centers and force them to make reads or finish. It seems they dislike their forward rotation so much that we even had a Danny Green sighting.

As the series shifts to New York, I’m not sure what kind of adjustments we can expect to see from Thibs, but I would find a way to test Green/Levert’s defense. Either Brunson screens with their man or you take your chances with your other guards. Keep the pressure on making them plug that leak. On the Cavaliers’ end, they might want to find other ways to cover Brunson especially if Randle gets more comfortable.
 
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awyp

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Kings were pretty bad yesterday, but the Warriors are that championship team to beat.

Saw the Suns vs Clippers highlights, Booker is looking really nice but I don't know if it's sustainable. It's sad how the Clippers are so injury-ridden every damn year.
 
I'd formally bet against that. It's possible, but I'm not sure if LeBron going for 40 while there's a younger and bigger body closer to the basket constantly with a matchup advantage is the most efficent offense they have. If anything, LeBron taking as many possessions away from Davis is a mental trap from Brooks to get the Lakers to completely change their offense.
 

awyp

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ngl that dillon brooks ejection was soft af and really based on the drama more than anything.

I'm very glad Duncan Robinson after having a really poor regular season is really bringing the heat to the heat.

This Clippers / Suns series is over, sadly but you can't keep getting injured and what not.
 

Camden

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ngl that dillon brooks ejection was soft af and really based on the drama more than anything.

I'm very glad Duncan Robinson after having a really poor regular season is really bringing the heat to the heat.

This Clippers / Suns series is over, sadly but you can't keep getting injured and what not.
The Brooks ejection is a shitty consistency call based on the Harden call from Thursday where he did the same thing. IMO Neither call should have been a Flagrant 2, but Harden's call was a makeup for Embiid's, which forced the refs to make the same call or look blatantly biased.
 

awyp

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That Warriors vs Kings game was extremely close yesterday, quite a blunder from Steph Curry in the last minutes calling a timeout when there was none to give, but they sneaked out a back breaker of a win luckily.

Watched majority of the Nuggets vs Wolves game, wow it was about to be a 4-0 sweep and the Wolves played their hearts out to not give into it. Edwards played out of his mind, and needed to or they would've lost.

Giannis is back for tonight's game so I'm excited for that.
 

awyp

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Ngl, the grizzlies folded yesterday and they did not have to. Very much a back breaker game and probably means the Lakers will be going through to the next round. The team can get stagnant when it comes to shot making, Ja wasn't getting calls for whatever reason yesterday (that's what I feel like they resort to when 3 point shots aren't going in). I just feel like Adams presence was really missing for Lebron to grab 20 boards is pretty bad blocking out overall.
 
Lakers didn't particularly dominate the way they normally do. AD wasn't impactful more than half the game.

Bane and Morant tried their best to keep up and pushed on makes and misses, and they weren't beat on the glass. They just don't have a clutch halfcourt offensive gameplan. Never have. These are the times you need one when it's late in the series on the road and you're stuck with what could be a top 3 defensive team in the halfcourt.

This is primarily why I originally favored the Lakers as they got more shooters and shot makers, plus playmaking. Grizzlies pretty much have Ja, Bane, and sometimes JJJ offensively. I suppose the efforts in game 2 were just that, because this would be a sweep otherwise.
 
Unbelievable series. I thought for sure the Heat would get swept, maybe win one game if they're lucky. I am so happy I was proven wrong. Jimmy Butler, man. He's special. My favorite player of all time.
 
(1) Denver Nuggets versus (4) Phoenix Suns

“I mean, when you’re stat-padding it’s easy.” – Nikola Jokic

Entering this, I’m uneasy about Phoenix’s depth and defense. Their key starters are already averaging over 40 minutes and that Los Angeles team they beat in the first round should not have scored as easily as they did. Something tells me that starting on the road against a team with a historically amazing home record does not bode well for Phoenix’s overall chances. Then, their frontline is likely to get beaten on the glass. Ayton and Durant are unlikely to prevent Jokic and Gordon from being advantageous on the glass. When thinking about these basic winning conventions, Denver has all the intangibles.

The one central question that would lead to a Denver defeat is if Jokic can guard Phoenix’s pick and roll against the best of the best at pull-ups. We actually haven’t seen Durant run too many high pick and rolls last round, so Phoenix could potentially get even better offensively. They’ve primarily went through Paul and Booker with Durant taking a step back. Durant’s pick and roll conversion with Phoenix when do they happen are out of this world. This starts to get dicey for Denver when we consider if Gordon really is your best option against him. Gordon doesn’t strike me as a player good at navigating screens, but he can guard Durant in isos. Porter is probably better at navigating screens but may be ineffective defensively on Durant everywhere else. I’m curious on Malone’s strategy with Durant, because Monty hasn’t used him as an offensive cog yet. I think Durant is the most important offensive player on Phoenix’s team despite him being passive recently. This isn’t a slight to Paul or Booker’s significance; it’s just that Denver’s defensive personnel is a lot more equipped to handle them compared to 2021. These guys are logging heavy minutes and now must worry about guys like Caldwell-Pope, Murray, and Brown Jr. Denver’s strategy of Durant will determine if the head of the snake goes down.

The only help Denver can afford to pull from is Phoenix’s fifth man which is likely to be Okogie since he’s closer to Murray’s size and is their best point-of-attack defender. How effective he is at guarding Murray is key because he’s their only realistic option. Okogie must give Phoenix good minutes because otherwise Phoenix simply won’t stop Denver’s offense. If Okogie isn’t shooting hot, Phoenix will be slowed down offensively. If Okogie isn’t limiting Murray, Phoenix will be limited defensively.

If we look at the other end of the court, we must also ask if Phoenix can guard Denver’s offense. I would consider Jokic’s matchup with Ayton advantageous. I don’t think Phoenix can play single coverage, so your next best help is off Gordon. The only other starter big enough to contend with Gordon is Durant. Gordon is one of the best cutters and offensive rebounders in the league. Is Durant up for that challenge for 40+ minutes? Maybe, but so far, Denver has appeared to be the more physical team.

To put it more succinctly, depth is likely to decide Phoenix’s fate. They could very well still beat Denver because of the amount of talent they have, but the problem is that they have no real continuity, very little variation in their lineups, and they’re going to be plain exhausted the longer the series goes on. Denver has guys who can dedicate themselves to roughing up Phoenix’s starters. Denver has many different lineups and variations of offense and defense. Denver has a dynamic guard and big man who can potentially kill Phoenix in the same games. The only real fear Phoenix sets in Denver is their pull-up attack. While that’s certainly the way they would win, I struggle to see how Phoenix stops Denver’s offense for 48 minutes without getting tired. The series comes down to whose offense can last the longest.

Denver wins if: Gordon/Jokic kill the glass. Murray is far too comfortable in the series. Okogie is useless. The three-headed snake is too tired from the heavy minutes load.

Phoenix wins if: Jokic is still a traffic cone in space. Durant is too masterful in pull-ups. Denver’s defense is worse than we feared. Murray can actually be contained.

Nuggets in six.
 

awyp

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Watched a bit of the game. Yeah I think this series is leaning one way. I think it’ll be a Lakers vs Nuggets Western conf finals rematch. Lakers matchup really well against Warriors / Kings, Kings get really stagnant on offensive looks / 3s. Warriors will be a close series but Draymond will get into foul trouble and cost them the series. All Good news for the lakers.


Fun story: was in Louisiana and I met the store owner of this hotdog place and he was like I grew up in Inglewood and I watched Kobe played 25 times live. I’m like damn awesome Kobe is awesome you’re lucky. I end up asking about Lebron and what he did to LA culture to see what he thinks and he said he hates it and don’t compare him to Kobe’s legacy in LA. Made my day today
 
(8) Miami Heat versus (5) New York Knicks

“Honestly, we were all questioning it…[Erik Spoelstra] came into the huddle and he was like ‘they didn’t call a timeout, what are they doing?'”- Max Struss on Milwaukee's coaching staff

This series is going to be a classic physical, grind-it-out slugfest. I didn't expect these two teams to meet at all in the playoffs, so it is a bit awkward of a series to think about. How much of Milwaukee/Miami was a result of a bad Milwaukee team or how good Butler is? Your answer to that likely correlates with who you think wins this series.

New York has the personnel to do mix-up coverages for Butler. Thibodeau will do a far greater job than Budenholzier in live-game adjustments. We would at least expect him to be able scheme against his former protege. Miami's central advantage is Butler, and he's likely neutralized by having his former coach on the other side.

Miami is also a small team. They somehow managed to beat Milwaukee, an extremely big and long team, in five games. However, New York is more purposeful about matchup hunting through Brunson and Randle's isolation. They're also more aggressive on the glass. Miami will have to depend almost entirely on zone defense to try to limit the areas Brunson and Randle can operate in. Only problem with that is, zoning leaves you more vulnerable to offensive boards.

Miami is going to have to figure out who the second or maybe even third guy can do to help alleviate Butler. It could be the continued hot shooting of Struss/Robinson/Vincent, Adebayo's defense and passing, Love's rebounding and shooting, or Lowry's playmaking. Will Miami be able to find consistent performances out of its role players versus New York's depth and highly ranked bench?

Miami wins if: Butler continues his dominance, and the Miami role players find ways to contribute once again against this New York Thibodeau defense. Miami's zone is effective and New York can't buy a bucket outside. Miami is holding up in individual matchups against Brunson and Randle fairly well.

New York wins if: Due to having Thibodeau on the other team, Butler is finally slowed down. New York dominates the glass. New York finds successful offense by picking on Miami's shooters.

Knicks in six.
 
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(3) Philadelphia 76ers versus (2) Boston Celtics

"This is not a rivalry. I don't know our record against them, but it's pretty bad. They always kick our ass." - Joel Embiid on Celtics

Boston versus Philadelphia III: Return of the Injured Knee was brought to you by the National Basketball Association. This will be the third Embiid-lead team to matchup against Tatum and Brown. Once again, Embiid has a nagging knee injury coming into the second round. I am going to assume Embiid is healthy when examining this series.

With Embiid being potentially limited, that puts more pressure on Harden to perform. He's capable of performing in the playoffs, but has equally been capable of being ineffective around enough lengthy defenders. In the Brooklyn series, Harden was fine with stepback threes, but couldn't find a way to get to the line or finish in the paint. Boston's perimeter defense is likely better than Brooklyn's, so in order for Philadelphia to advance, we have to see Harden be comfortable on offense.

Maxey would of course be the next guy up after Harden. Sometimes, he's flat out better than Harden. However, Boston probably has the best guard core in the league. If I'm a betting man, I'd take Smart, Brogdon, and White over Harden, Maxey, Milton, and Melton. It's not necessarily about talent for me; those three guards just all come from great schools and histories of defense. Harden and Maxey can definitely do some things; I'm just not personally betting on it.

The frontline is the only decisive advantage Philadelphia conceptually has over Boston. Boston has been able to single cover Embiid with just Horford in the past. I don't think that works as well today. Throughout the regular season, they've mixed up coverages the best any team is able to, but Embiid dominating individually wouldn't be out of the ordinary. I don't think the focus should entirely be on Embiid's performance this series however. Scoring on Boston could very well be fine from Philadelphia's perspective. The historical issue has always been perimeter defense and perimeter depth. Tatum, Brown, and Smart have always managed to more than make-up the difference of any advantage Embiid has over the frontline. Additionally, Horford spacing the floor pulls Embiid out the paint and if he's making shots, that compromises Philadelphia's defense even more. I haven't seen an adjustment from Philadelpha regarding this ever. Other than trying to get Horford in foul trouble and hoping he misses, you're kinda banking on aging doing its thing at this point.

It's clear Boston has the history and roster to be favored, and the only way Philadelphia advances is through the talents of Embiid/Harden/Maxey and the collective efficiency of the role guys. I will try not to underestimate newer guys like Tucker, Reed, and McDaniels. Even Harris may impress us with a playoff performance. There's only so many years the same team loses to the same core in the same way. Do the wings of Philadelphia finally have the ability match Boston's wings? Even if they do, will Embiid's injury be an issue? Philadelphia has a lot of questions to answer before I ever favor them over Boston.

Philadelphia wins if: Harden, Maxey, or even Harris come alive offensively. They hold their own defensively as well. Horford isn't shooting as well from distance, and Embiid/Harden have put a ton of foul pressure on Boston's frontline.

Boston wins if: Tatum, Brown, and their overall guard core do like they did in all the previous matchups. Horford does Horford things. Harden does Harden things.

Celtics in six.
 
If Kevin Love can throw a few more of those incredible outlet passes, I don't see how Miami doesn't win every single game by 20+ points on their way to a championship.
 
The series the whole world wanted to see is here. I won't risk a hunch, but it gonna be a full series.

And both players were iconic on previous series. LeBron citing Jay-Z's Trouble after thrashing young guns Grizzlies and Curry raining all time NBA record 50 pts in game 7 and doing the Light The Beam celebration in Sacramento.

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Surfy

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I won’t have as elaborate and well thought out reasoning like Derrick Rose will, but give me the Lakers in 6. Think there’s enough there from a matchup and defensive scheming standpoint that give the Lakers the edge. If we get the same AD from the first round and maybe a little bit better version of Lebron, I think the Lakers will fair just fine.

Kevon Looney has proved time and time again that he is a great ball player and while that is certainly true, he’s no JJJ on the defensive end. Expecting the Lakers to attack the paint as attempting to outshoot GS is usually a fruitless endeavor.

It’ll also be interesting to see what version of Poole we get. If Jordan continues to shoot the ball poorly then that’ll be one more obstacle GS has to overcome as I expect LAL to blitz 30 forcing him to give the ball up.

Gonna be an all-timer. (Potentially) one last dance.
 
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