While Rain tends to reward limited prediction making by the Rain team, what it does better than probably any strategy I've ever seen is
punish the shit out of people who are making bad predictions, specifically people who are making
the most obvious fucking move every turn. Anyone who has ever seen psycho play against a Rain team probably knows what I'm talking about here, but while that example is really extreme, I think a lot of the problem I have with the arguments here is that people really aren't giving countering rain a shot. I'm not sure if people have just sold themselves on failure already and aren't
really trying to counter it anymore, both when making the teams or playing the games or what, but it sure sounds like people think Rain is a team full of ubers which is getting pretty ridiculous.
I think it's very telling that with maybe one exception the people complaining about this one aren't the people I consider really skilled players. I don't mean that in a condescending way, but I think a lot of people really need to re-think how they're playing against rain (especially from the team creation stage). I think there's a reasonable argument that it is simply too difficult to play around, but it is a very different argument than "I could play around DD LO Gyarados" like it was made it out to be. Gyarados isn't going to magically lose half its speed and attacking power if it is on the field too long, nor will its switch in be telegraphed by rain set-up. Playing against a rain team, you know pretty much exactly when Kabutops or Ludicolo or whoever is switching in based on the stage of the battle and what is on your side of the field.
Rain teams strategically have a bunch of weaknesses. It is absolutely terrible with the Rain isn't up. Team formation is extremely predictable, to the point you basically know 3-4 members of the team from turn 2. There's exceptions like Flare's team (which, incidentally, has been way under .500 in matches I've watched it in, though I only watch games against other good players). Information is a huge part of Pokemon - when you know a Pokemon's moveset the moment it is sent out, and for the most part your opponents remaining pokemon (so you know what Pokemon you need to keep alive to avoid auto-losing) it is much easier to predict against. Rain also has some big weaknesses in that you know exactly the tempo it is going to try to play by - the lead will basically invariably be a rain set-up, followed by one of the water based sweepers. This is something you can and need to take advantage of. Almost everyone is running an anti-rain set-up lead right now which is a good start, though I think unless you're being super clever you're going to have to face an early game rain. As such, a lot of how people should be playing it is sending something out that punishes the inevitable switch. Having a sub out before rain sweeper 1 helps, but even just killing or greatly weakening the first sweeper on the switch helps a ton. There's really not much your opponent can do to stop this unless they're leading stupid Electrode (who is probably the worst Rain Dancer IMO, since by design he isn't going to be around to Dance a second time), and if they try to keep their set-up mon out to fight whatever you have in protection of their sweepers, they are wasting precious rain turns. Maybe the biggest weakness of rain is the fact its essentially choosing to play down 6-4 at best (sometimes worse for the heavy set-up teams), since those set-up Pokemon aren't going to do anything terrible threatening (Raikou being somewhat of an exception, though it has to neuter itself pretty good to play its role on these teams). Particularly in the middle of the game it is not nearly as impossible to apply offensive pressure as people like to think it is, especially if you can get the rain team to anticipate a switch. It is really difficult (read: impossible, since you have no useful resistances) to play on the defensive with a Rain team - it's basically an instant loss if it ever loses momentum.
Not the least of these weaknesses, by the way, is the fact that everyone mentions Rain sweepers getting a Swords Dance turn one. My experience from my Rain testing has been pretty much right - yes, my opponent usually does something stupid the first turn I have Ludicolo or Kabutops out so I can SD up.
Why the hell do people do that?
Is there anything you can imagine that would
possibly make my job easier than basically ensuring I can OHKO anything on your team if I guess right? Rain sweepers are frail across the board. They can't carry sash since SR is almost guaranteed to be up and they need the LO power, and they all have weaknesses to pretty common types. Why the hell would you just let me stat-up? Especially when you had that RD turn to tell you what I'm about to do? If you don't have something that's going to threaten Kabutops/etc. enough that it can't Rain Dance out (especially if it can't OHKO either, obviously) the turn after the Rain Dance (preferably the turn of to hit whoever comes in on the switch), you're doing something horribly wrong
Heh I did beat Flare with his rain team the one time we've played, and seriously guys you don't need Dual Screens or whatever to beat Rain. It's actually not that bad if played correctly, you just need to make smart switches the whole time. I think with my current team I haven't lost to a single rain team AND I've managed to be successful on ladder (top 5 peak, still top 10 I think or close to). Rain is very good, but you're all making it sound like you need to go to extreme lengths to beat it >.<
Just quoting this to agree with it.
If you lead with DD Gatr, you probably run an all out offensive team with one, maybe two (semi) defensive pivots.
Turn 1: You DD as Quilfish sets up Rain.
Turn 2: You DD again while it explodes in your face.
Quoting this (even though it was in response to an equally flawed post) for one reason in particular: Oh look, the Feraligatr user got outplayed! Haven't seen
this before in an anti-rain post...
BTW what you outlined is not immediate offensive pressure, I'm referring to e.g Scarf Saur leaf storm/sleep powder. then again Quilfish carries lum, so your only choice is to ohko with leaf storm, take the -2 drop, and watch helplessly as rain is set up.
Kind of ironic on that since on most teams (basically everyone except evidently one specific team) that set-up mon is carrying a rock for the extra three turns... I guess you'd see this more if you win the vote?
I think Smurf. is overstating it when he says you automatically lose. I certainly feel I had a chance to beat FlareBlitz. It's just that, at least with the tactics I used, it's very hard - and I had a lot of rain defense. Perhaps next time I'll give up on early screens to stop his early Spikes, which hopefully would let Venusaur and Milotic switch in more often.
I lost the name on this quote which makes me very sad but I really like the line of logic here.
This is pretty much exactly what I wish I was seeing more of. "Well, I didn't win, but if I had [played better] I could have won."
If Rain really does end up being broken, we'll find out after players are losing consistently to rain even after playing a much better game - the problem comes in when the player who plays the worse game wins. This post pretty much sums up my entire point here - people are playing with teams that are underprepared for rain and/or misplaying their opponents, and then complaining that it is Rain's fault they lost. Rain is certainly a tough strategy to make a comeback against, but I think more than anything it is sometimes a strategy where the first 8 turns decide who wins, one way or another. If people are letting 3 layers of spikes or whatever get set up, rain up, and all of the sweepers are undamaged, then OF COURSE you're going to lose! You just fucked up!
Synre, Heysup, I've beaten most of the people in the top 20 on the leaderboard with my rain team. The same rain team, mind. Multiple times.
I don't want this to sound like a call out post but I would love to know who some of these players are, and logs are nice. These are the type of games that would be relevant to this type of topic (especially if you're actually beating them in rematches when what seems like an awfully gimmicky rain team no longer has the element of surprise) - I really couldn't care less about most of the logs people have posted because a majority of the time one of the players was never in the game.