Virus or no virus, do you think this long-term picture changes at all? Natural population growth continues to fall across the west...
The demographics are what they are and Western pensions are systemically and increasingly underfunded, even before the current crisis. Private pension schemes have promised benchmark annualised returns of ~7% for decades, but this figure has been pure fantasy since 2008. Anybody who understands compound returns will also understand that these pension deficits can never decrease, which is a very real problem as the average baby boomer is now ~65 years old.
The average boomer had ~$1m in net assets prior to this crisis, but that figure is greatly skewed by the 1%. The median boomer had ~$185k in net assets, with ~$80k in equities or equity correlated investments, so that total figure is now ~$165k; the boomers can't retire. Additionally, social security is a promise that the government will either break or fulfil with printed money, as inflows from younger generations will never be enough to offset the liabilities.
Will real wages need to start rising? Will the unaided market ever get there? What happens if it doesn't?
If real wages do rise, will enough of the benefit go to the poor / lower-middle class that has much less discretionary spending and therefore much more room to improve?
Real wages can't rise without breakthroughs in productivity, but improvements in productivity are coming through automation, which cuts labour out of the equation entirely. The poor and unskilled will suffer as they always do. This goes a long way to explain the dichotomy of society and the rise of Trump and Sanders on either side of the political spectrum; they represent two opposing lenses on the same problem, that the marginalised majority have been left behind.
As I understand it, the US minimum wage doesn't track inflation, hasn't changed for years, and there's no nuance to account for geographic location. Presumably, by the time it does increase, inflation will have eroded the value of any nominal change anyway.
Basically, the future looks grim, and that's because the 11 year expansion that just ended was fuelled by debt, and debt is borrowing against the future. All of the excess will have to be paid for. I think people will be forced to adjust to being poorer... it's as simple as that; either they will have less money, or the money that they have will have less purchasing power. I know that average household size is increasing, which is an indication of where society is heading. More and more people are living with their parents, and over time that could change from a joke to the norm.