The Road to the Playoffs
Sponsored by the Dick Van Dyke Show
With the playoffs in plain sight, only 5 teams are vying for the last 3 spots. Let's take a look at how each team can make it to the playoffs in this edition of
UUSD 2023 - Road to the Playoffs - presented by Chrysler.
Lake of Outrage Sandacondas
Record: 5-1-0
Points:10
Differential: +19
The Lake of Outrage Sandacondas could lose 0-100 and fall into a death trap and they would still make the playoffs. They are a lock. Congratulations!
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Violet City Vtubers
Record: 3-2-1
Points: 7
Differential: +10
It's not really about "how" do the Vtubers get into the playoffs. It's about what catastrophe would need to happen to prevent them from making it. There is actually only one very specific scenario in which they don't make it since the teams below them all play each other, and that is:
A) Vtubers lose 0-12 (yes they have to lose 0-12 to actually have a chance to not make it)
B) Dragonairs beat Wurmples exactly 9-3
C) Ceruledges DON'T beat Dragonites by an exact margin of 7-5 and also DON'T tie (any other outcome of that series will work for this disaster to happen).
If all of that somehow happens, then Vtubers have 7 points with a -2 differential, Wurmples have 7 points with a -2 differential, Dragonairs have 7 points with a -1 differential, and one of the Dragonites or Ceruledges have either more points or a higher differential. Which means:
d) that doesn't even exclude them from the playoff scenario, it means they play a tiebreaker with the Wurmples (and possibly Ceruledges if Ceruledges won 8-4), and if they lose that tiebreaker, then they are out.
So yeah they're probably in barring the worst collapse in the history of human interaction which would likely cause the entire team to retire.
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Wild Wordle Wurmples
Record: 3-2-1
Points: 7
Differential: +4
Wurmples are looking good, as a win, a tie, or a "soft" 5-7 and even 4-8 loss still guarantees them a spot, since there is no way for both the Dragonites and Ceruledges to pass them no matter what happens, meaning the Dragonairs would need to leapfrog them and one of the other teams has to pass them. So let's go over the scenarios:
SCENARIO 1: Wurmples 3-9 to Dragonairs. This allows the Dragonairs to leap them in the standings. But that alone isn't enough to exclude them, as the following would also have to happen:
1A) Ceruledges DON'T beat Dragonites by an exact margin of 7-5 and also DON'T tie (If Ceruledges win exactly 8-4 it would create a tiebreaker scenario)
1B) The Vtubers DON'T lose 0-12 (if they do lose 0-12 then it would create a tiebreaker scenario)
If all of that happens, Wurmples could be out.
SCENARIO 2: Wurmples lose 2-10 to Dragonairs or worse. They are pretty much out if this happens BUT:
2A) If Ceruledges win 7-5 OR tie with the Dragonites, then it would create a tiebreaker scenario here. Any other outcome of that series ensures Wurmples are out in this scenario.
SCENARIO 3: Wurmples lose 1-11 or worse - they are out completely.
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Tohjo Falls Dragonites
Record: 2-2-2
Points: 6
Differential: -4
Now it gets very interesting as the next few teams are very much pushing for that final slot. For the Dragonites, a win of any kind guarantees them a playoff spot. A loss of any kind guarantees they are out. So this is really just analyzing what scenarios get them in with a tie:
A) If the Dragonairs lose or tie the Wurmples, or beat the Wurmples by a margin of 7-5 only, then the Dragonites are in the playoffs with a tie.
B) If the Dragonairs beat the Wurmples 11-1 or 12-0, then the Dragonites are still in the playoffs with a tie.
C) If the Dragonairs beat the Wurmples 10-2, then the Dragonites would be in a tiebreaker scenario with the Wurmples to get into the playoffs.
D) If the Dragonairs beat the Wurmples 9-3 or 8-4, then the Dragonites are out of the playoffs with a tie.
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Ceruledge of Tomorrow
Record: 2-3-1
Points: 5
Differential: -6
Ceruledges can only get in if they win. And even still, that is not a guarantee. Here are the different scenarios that could get them in:
SCENARIO 1: Win 7-5 vs Dragonites. If this happens, then they are in if:
1A) Dragonairs lose or tie to the Wurmples, or
1B) Dragonairs also win 7-5 over the Wurmples, or
1C) Dragonairs win 11-1 or 12-0 over Wurmples, or
1D) Dragonairs win 10-2 over Wurmples (this results in a tiebreaker scenario with Wurmples though)
Which means:
1E) if Dragonairs win exactly 8-4 or 9-3 over Wurmples in this scenario, then Ceruledges are out.
SCENARIO 2: Win 8-4 over Dragonites. If this happens, then they are in UNLESS:
2A) Dragonairs beat Wurmples 9-3 - this would result in a tiebreaker scenario with Wurmples. Any other result of that series guarantees the Ceruledges are in this scenario.
SCENARIO 3: Win 9-3 over Dragonites. This guarantees a playoff spot no matter what.
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Dragon's Den Dragonairs
Record: 2-3-1
Points: 5
Differential: -7
The Dragonairs are in a very similar spot to the Ceruledges. However there is no way for them to be in with a 7-5 win, so they have to win at least 8-4 to have a chance. A 9-3 win guarantees them a playoff spot as it allows them to leapfrog the Wurmples. With an 8-4 they can still be in only if:
A) Dragonites tie the Ceruledges, OR
B) Ceruledges beat Dragonites 7-5
If either of those happen, Dragonairs are in with an 8-4 win. Any other outcome of that series will not allow the Dragonairs to in with an 8-4 win.
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And there you have it! yw
Bouff