5k posts and more coming, eventually I'll crust 
"ULTRA" predictions for the occasion
Playing FLCL 1-2pm on Saturday btw.
"ULTRA" predictions for the occasionEternal Spirit (70) vs (30) Spectear - Glad to see my guy Spectear get his SPL debut in, but this one will not be pretty. M Dragon pretty much sent out this dude as Shark bait honestly. Eternal Spirit in your debut might as well be a week long migraine headache. This dude can use anything and click anything while making it all work. Obviously, ES has refined his game while becoming the most consistent SM player on the site over the last year and change, but he's still a pain to prepare for, let alone play against. Spectear already has his hands full trying to compete in a field where everyone has more experience than he does. This is just going to be too much for the dude, but I hope to see the Sharks commit to him and see if there's anything there once he has more reasonable opponents.
Sacri' (49) vs (51) Tamahome - Tama's the better player and I respect that, hence my prediction, but my god I was so tempted to predict Sacri here. The Sharks teams have largely been cheesy or kinda garbage in SM thus far despite the 50k investment into their starters. Tamahome is a smart dude, but you'd be a fool to think he was some top-end teambuilder in SM, so he's more likely being handed shit in-house. And let me tell you, that house is fucking crumbling more and more each week. Tama's one of the best pilots of all-time and I expect he will be able to translate a grimy, ratchet squad into a w, but if I see another Nihilego or Unaware Clefable on non-stall I think I might go full SPL 8 CBB holy shit. Sacri' is solid despite people always hating on him because he wines. The guy can play, but I rate him a tier below Tamahome, so even if his teams are a bit more consistent, I find it hard to bold his name here.
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obii (40) vs (60) Hiye - Contrary to popular belief, obii isn't completely dogshit at Pokemon. Is he worth 10.5k? No, but he isn't a misfit in the starting line-up. He's not a top tier player, but he showed some nice understanding of how to gameplan and position in weeks 1-3. Hell, he could easily be 2-2 rn with a decent list of opponents. Week 4 was a complete wash for the Cryos hopeful, but I mean anyone could've told you that from the minute the thread went up and said "BW OU: obii vs SoulWind", so I digress. Hiye was in ORAS for the first 3 weeks of the tournament, so that's 3 weeks of his life he will never really get back. Thankfully, his managers wised up and put him in a tier where he actually excels recently and he made quick work of a more inexperienced opponent last week. It's pretty easy to predict Hiye here if you just eye his track-record as a player relative to Obii. You got the dude who goes heavily positive in SM each of the last two big tours against the dude who had a 1-8 clip all-time until a while back. And don't get me wrong, I do favor Hiye here, but I think that this will be closer. Hiye's teams are coming from god knows where and it's only a matter of time before that trips him up a little bit. Obii has an underrated fundamental understanding of SM and teambuilding support that is second-to-none arguably. If the game is not favorable from team preview, then Hiye will win this I'm pretty sure, but I cannot discount this prospect, so I'll consider this as a "closer" game given that.
BHARATH_THEBEST (55) vs (45) Empo - Fuck records for a minute. BTB has been playing some quality games for the most part and this dude is determined to breakthrough -- you can just feel it. Empo is 3-1 and should be 4-0, but he fucked around last week and that's not a good look. BTB has some days where if you don't show the username on his side, you'd guess he was a bro fist caliber player. He also has some days where it doesn't fucking matter because he times out...or because he reads too far into a situation and tries to 3d chess an opponent who is looking 1 turn ahead into the game, shooting himself in the foot. If BTB is on, he's a strong favorite against mostly everyone in my eyes, but that's not a lock, so I'll leave it as a close one considering Empo's success. I still think Empo is not a runaway favorite against anyone. He has a tendency to play dangerous, close games and while he has a knack for pulling out more than a normal player in similar situations would, the flashy Italian youngster is by no means flawless and the cracks in the foundation have shown in pretty alarming fashions a couple times in recent months.
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Mana (55) vs (45) Charmflash - A bit of an "upset" if you will, but is it really if you think about it? Yea, Charmflash has been "hot fire" in his unexpected 4 game win streak to start off the season. But if someone told you a month ago that Mana vs Charmflash was 55-45 in favor of the former, would you be surprised? Hell no. And honestly, I think we've seen a lot of good out of Mana. So while everyone was initially low on Charmflash, I think a lot of us were uncertain about Mana and he's proving to be a strong player. While it seems like half of Mana's games are decided by broken ass SG Magearna in some capacity, his builds are pretty fresh and calculated while his play has gotten better after a really scary showing week 1. I genuinely believe Mana has a case to be an SM1 in this field and I think that he will show it here, especially with his ability to avoid shittier match-ups historically as Charmflash can use literally anything under the fucking sun. Speaking of Charmflash, I think he's really solid in-game, but everyone has to come down to Earth eventually and I think his teams naturally lead to a certain degree of variance, so I would be surprised if he stays undefeated for too long. Honestly, if SPL Charmflash is the real thing and not whatever the fuck we saw in SSD2, then this guy is going to be staying relevant for years to come and I expect him to finish very positive this year. But I think that Mana is poised to comeback from his loss last week and pull off the "upset".
blunder (49) vs (51) Kickasser - Honestly, more of a gut feeling than anything else. You can justifiably predict both of these guys to win and nobody would blink an eye. They combine for over 40k and a 7-1 record, so this one has highlight match and close-game written all over it. I think blunder might be on some sort of "I'm back and still hot shit" high that could inflate his sense of self a bit, which honestly prompted my Kickasser predicton. But I do think that his ceiling is higher as a player overall. blunder has an uncanny knack for making positioning-based reads in the early/mid-game to get his ass in the lead and then he rarely throws it away later. I know a lot of people think he's a clown and he kind of is because he likes to talk a big game, but deep down blunder gives a shit about his performance and he's not going to roll up with Mega Glalie again, especially if they play when the week is still close, which I think it will be throughout. So fr, I would not be surprised if he pulled this. But Kickasser is one of the few 4-0s in SM OU, he's been winning pretty impressively in some of his games, and his team choices have all been working against the opponent, so there has to be a lot of things clicking here. Overall, I am really excited to see the teams and plays here. My prediction is really just a gut feeling more than an actual prediction.
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Talah (40) vs (60) Lopunny Kicks - I mean if this game is set to be anything like Talah's game last week, then I'd prefer if one of these guy mysteriously disappeared for the next week or so. Assuming that's not the case, then I think we got a pretty interesting match here. I favor Lopunny Kicks because I feel like he just wins a fuckton of games somehow. I don't think he's a top player, but he has proven to be a winner over Snake and now the start of this SPL, despite him getting absolutely violated by ES last week. Talah made some nice moves last week actually, but he dug himself a hole earlier and won mainly because of his opponent being incompetent. The same can be said week 1 as his opponent decided punishing Stealth Rocks at 6-6 was more important than actually being able to win the game. What a fucking idiot, right? Anyway, there is still a lot of good that you have to credit to the rookie Raider here. He has avoided bad misplays/throws for the most part, which is something I know people were a bit concerned about coming in. There seems to be an awkward sequence or two each game, but if he can avoid there being major damage / positional loss during the game from that, then he's in fine shape overall. I still think he's a step behind Lopunny Kicks, who just has higher outplaying potential and is likely to leave Talah's head spinning with some set/move within the first 15 turns of the game if I had to guess.
bro fist (60) vs (40) Will of Fire - Man, WoF is like 3-0 vs me in official tours without playing me fr. He built that fast Hippowdon bullshit, he made the Wisp Victini set we saw from craing w2 apparently, and of fucking course his genius decided slapping Unaware Clefable onto a balanced team was a bright idea for Tricking. I swear this guy got some magical ball and it's been on FIRE for months now. Look, I cannot begin to justify it, but this guy is legitimately a thread and we have to respect him after his blunder tour run among other things. WoF is really a unique builder and I think that if he is to win this game, it will be through that. The thing is that it's hard to bank on that, especially when john is one of the best people at using middleground-ish teams to give him a shot to outplay Overall, I think that fact actually will be john's saving grace here as he's surely the better, more proven player.
Sacri' (49) vs (51) Tamahome - Tama's the better player and I respect that, hence my prediction, but my god I was so tempted to predict Sacri here. The Sharks teams have largely been cheesy or kinda garbage in SM thus far despite the 50k investment into their starters. Tamahome is a smart dude, but you'd be a fool to think he was some top-end teambuilder in SM, so he's more likely being handed shit in-house. And let me tell you, that house is fucking crumbling more and more each week. Tama's one of the best pilots of all-time and I expect he will be able to translate a grimy, ratchet squad into a w, but if I see another Nihilego or Unaware Clefable on non-stall I think I might go full SPL 8 CBB holy shit. Sacri' is solid despite people always hating on him because he wines. The guy can play, but I rate him a tier below Tamahome, so even if his teams are a bit more consistent, I find it hard to bold his name here.
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obii (40) vs (60) Hiye - Contrary to popular belief, obii isn't completely dogshit at Pokemon. Is he worth 10.5k? No, but he isn't a misfit in the starting line-up. He's not a top tier player, but he showed some nice understanding of how to gameplan and position in weeks 1-3. Hell, he could easily be 2-2 rn with a decent list of opponents. Week 4 was a complete wash for the Cryos hopeful, but I mean anyone could've told you that from the minute the thread went up and said "BW OU: obii vs SoulWind", so I digress. Hiye was in ORAS for the first 3 weeks of the tournament, so that's 3 weeks of his life he will never really get back. Thankfully, his managers wised up and put him in a tier where he actually excels recently and he made quick work of a more inexperienced opponent last week. It's pretty easy to predict Hiye here if you just eye his track-record as a player relative to Obii. You got the dude who goes heavily positive in SM each of the last two big tours against the dude who had a 1-8 clip all-time until a while back. And don't get me wrong, I do favor Hiye here, but I think that this will be closer. Hiye's teams are coming from god knows where and it's only a matter of time before that trips him up a little bit. Obii has an underrated fundamental understanding of SM and teambuilding support that is second-to-none arguably. If the game is not favorable from team preview, then Hiye will win this I'm pretty sure, but I cannot discount this prospect, so I'll consider this as a "closer" game given that.
BHARATH_THEBEST (55) vs (45) Empo - Fuck records for a minute. BTB has been playing some quality games for the most part and this dude is determined to breakthrough -- you can just feel it. Empo is 3-1 and should be 4-0, but he fucked around last week and that's not a good look. BTB has some days where if you don't show the username on his side, you'd guess he was a bro fist caliber player. He also has some days where it doesn't fucking matter because he times out...or because he reads too far into a situation and tries to 3d chess an opponent who is looking 1 turn ahead into the game, shooting himself in the foot. If BTB is on, he's a strong favorite against mostly everyone in my eyes, but that's not a lock, so I'll leave it as a close one considering Empo's success. I still think Empo is not a runaway favorite against anyone. He has a tendency to play dangerous, close games and while he has a knack for pulling out more than a normal player in similar situations would, the flashy Italian youngster is by no means flawless and the cracks in the foundation have shown in pretty alarming fashions a couple times in recent months.
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Mana (55) vs (45) Charmflash - A bit of an "upset" if you will, but is it really if you think about it? Yea, Charmflash has been "hot fire" in his unexpected 4 game win streak to start off the season. But if someone told you a month ago that Mana vs Charmflash was 55-45 in favor of the former, would you be surprised? Hell no. And honestly, I think we've seen a lot of good out of Mana. So while everyone was initially low on Charmflash, I think a lot of us were uncertain about Mana and he's proving to be a strong player. While it seems like half of Mana's games are decided by broken ass SG Magearna in some capacity, his builds are pretty fresh and calculated while his play has gotten better after a really scary showing week 1. I genuinely believe Mana has a case to be an SM1 in this field and I think that he will show it here, especially with his ability to avoid shittier match-ups historically as Charmflash can use literally anything under the fucking sun. Speaking of Charmflash, I think he's really solid in-game, but everyone has to come down to Earth eventually and I think his teams naturally lead to a certain degree of variance, so I would be surprised if he stays undefeated for too long. Honestly, if SPL Charmflash is the real thing and not whatever the fuck we saw in SSD2, then this guy is going to be staying relevant for years to come and I expect him to finish very positive this year. But I think that Mana is poised to comeback from his loss last week and pull off the "upset".
blunder (49) vs (51) Kickasser - Honestly, more of a gut feeling than anything else. You can justifiably predict both of these guys to win and nobody would blink an eye. They combine for over 40k and a 7-1 record, so this one has highlight match and close-game written all over it. I think blunder might be on some sort of "I'm back and still hot shit" high that could inflate his sense of self a bit, which honestly prompted my Kickasser predicton. But I do think that his ceiling is higher as a player overall. blunder has an uncanny knack for making positioning-based reads in the early/mid-game to get his ass in the lead and then he rarely throws it away later. I know a lot of people think he's a clown and he kind of is because he likes to talk a big game, but deep down blunder gives a shit about his performance and he's not going to roll up with Mega Glalie again, especially if they play when the week is still close, which I think it will be throughout. So fr, I would not be surprised if he pulled this. But Kickasser is one of the few 4-0s in SM OU, he's been winning pretty impressively in some of his games, and his team choices have all been working against the opponent, so there has to be a lot of things clicking here. Overall, I am really excited to see the teams and plays here. My prediction is really just a gut feeling more than an actual prediction.
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Talah (40) vs (60) Lopunny Kicks - I mean if this game is set to be anything like Talah's game last week, then I'd prefer if one of these guy mysteriously disappeared for the next week or so. Assuming that's not the case, then I think we got a pretty interesting match here. I favor Lopunny Kicks because I feel like he just wins a fuckton of games somehow. I don't think he's a top player, but he has proven to be a winner over Snake and now the start of this SPL, despite him getting absolutely violated by ES last week. Talah made some nice moves last week actually, but he dug himself a hole earlier and won mainly because of his opponent being incompetent. The same can be said week 1 as his opponent decided punishing Stealth Rocks at 6-6 was more important than actually being able to win the game. What a fucking idiot, right? Anyway, there is still a lot of good that you have to credit to the rookie Raider here. He has avoided bad misplays/throws for the most part, which is something I know people were a bit concerned about coming in. There seems to be an awkward sequence or two each game, but if he can avoid there being major damage / positional loss during the game from that, then he's in fine shape overall. I still think he's a step behind Lopunny Kicks, who just has higher outplaying potential and is likely to leave Talah's head spinning with some set/move within the first 15 turns of the game if I had to guess.
bro fist (60) vs (40) Will of Fire - Man, WoF is like 3-0 vs me in official tours without playing me fr. He built that fast Hippowdon bullshit, he made the Wisp Victini set we saw from craing w2 apparently, and of fucking course his genius decided slapping Unaware Clefable onto a balanced team was a bright idea for Tricking. I swear this guy got some magical ball and it's been on FIRE for months now. Look, I cannot begin to justify it, but this guy is legitimately a thread and we have to respect him after his blunder tour run among other things. WoF is really a unique builder and I think that if he is to win this game, it will be through that. The thing is that it's hard to bank on that, especially when john is one of the best people at using middleground-ish teams to give him a shot to outplay Overall, I think that fact actually will be john's saving grace here as he's surely the better, more proven player.
Osh (40) vs (60) Tricking - The teams in this game are going to make all the NU substitutes/snubs so fucking salty, I can't wait for the PMs. Both of these guys are kind of wildcards, imo. Osh's showing last week was pretty disappointing. He used a silly set to gain an early advantage, but couldn't hold on to it and lost in a pretty confusing game overall. Prior to that, he has looked like he belongs in the field at least, so there's plenty of hope and I think he is good at outplaying people, but he has to be in the right mindset to do so consistently. I mean shit this dude is out here making GS runs and winning ribbons, he CAN'T be bad. But how good is he on any given day? Fuck if I know at this point lol. Tricking is the real deal as a player and if you're refuting that in 2019 then idfwu, but his issues largely are related to sloppiness. Sometimes, he gets sloppy with teams. Using stuff other people build with a lot of questionable things. Sometimes, he gets sloppy in the game by clicking faster than David's heart will be beating on the sidelines watching the 60-turns-in-7-minute displays of the past. Honestly, Tricking is good enough to go positive in any singles tier and I think he's going to have Teddeh's team support here, so this should be a strong showing.
Leru (25) vs (75) lax - lax has been pretty sloppy lately, but then you look at his opponent and what he has done seems incredibly tame. Leru has been blatantly underwhelming this SPL after a phenomenal showing during SSD2. Idk what his deal is, but I simply cannot predict him to win this game after he clicked Toxic Spike there. lax has not been nearly as good as he was during the later stages of 2018, but he's not fading away. He's a strong NUer and he uses teams that are surprising, yet dynamic, which can lead to a lot of success against people who do not main the tier who lack teambuilding support. lax just has to not try to do too much on any given turn and play his game, then this should be a wrap. The only way he loses if if like Leru pulls out stall that lax cannot break and actually plays it well OR Leru starts to play like he did in SSD again, otherwise I find this to be one of the more lopsided NU games until proven wrong about the form of one of these two. Oh and while I'm at it, Leru is responsible for the only team tournament dead game I've had to take really ever last NUPL, so fuck him in NU tbh. Still salty.
ict (40) vs (60) Eternally - Eternally definitely wants revenge from the game he took and threw as far away from his reach as he possibly could last year. My guy has gotten a lot better since then, proving he can compete with the better NUers with his dominant SSD2 performance and his strong showings the last 2 weeks. ict is a solid player and he can win on any given day given how high his playing ceiling is, but this guy feels a bit misplaced against the true dedicated NUers who can actually play a little bit. I think that the information and support advantage Eternally has can be a pretty big factor here, so unless ict changes it up in just the right way, then I feel like it's going to be hard for him to really get an advantageous match-up, which he may need against a strong NU mainstay like Eternally if he wants to emerge victorious. Cool game overall though, fan of both of them as players.
SPACE FORCE meeps (51) vs (49) Realistic Waters - This game is going to make absolutely no fucking sense. Both of them can use literally anything and seem to get away with it far more often than not. Both of them have trouble finishing games to a degree, but also have a lot of strong points as players, too. meeps seems to actually be going hardmode this SPL, so that's a plus for him as I think he has a higher ceiling as a player. However, RW's track record overall is a bit better. I think this is probably the closest of the bunch, but I favor meeps because I think he has found a way to control his cheesy bs a bit more than waters, who toes the line of unjustifiable a bit more often than not. Just stuff like spamming offensive Lure Steelix on teams that don't need it or teams that need the defensive presence for some things could tilt the scales against him. Not to mention...Pyroar? Why man. Anyway, meeps uses plenty of questionable shit, don't get me wrong. This year I feel like he's done well at finding a controlled midground between innovation and practical shit, so he is probably going to find a way to be more consistent than usual, so I predict him to edge RW out in a crazy, but close, game.
Leru (25) vs (75) lax - lax has been pretty sloppy lately, but then you look at his opponent and what he has done seems incredibly tame. Leru has been blatantly underwhelming this SPL after a phenomenal showing during SSD2. Idk what his deal is, but I simply cannot predict him to win this game after he clicked Toxic Spike there. lax has not been nearly as good as he was during the later stages of 2018, but he's not fading away. He's a strong NUer and he uses teams that are surprising, yet dynamic, which can lead to a lot of success against people who do not main the tier who lack teambuilding support. lax just has to not try to do too much on any given turn and play his game, then this should be a wrap. The only way he loses if if like Leru pulls out stall that lax cannot break and actually plays it well OR Leru starts to play like he did in SSD again, otherwise I find this to be one of the more lopsided NU games until proven wrong about the form of one of these two. Oh and while I'm at it, Leru is responsible for the only team tournament dead game I've had to take really ever last NUPL, so fuck him in NU tbh. Still salty.
ict (40) vs (60) Eternally - Eternally definitely wants revenge from the game he took and threw as far away from his reach as he possibly could last year. My guy has gotten a lot better since then, proving he can compete with the better NUers with his dominant SSD2 performance and his strong showings the last 2 weeks. ict is a solid player and he can win on any given day given how high his playing ceiling is, but this guy feels a bit misplaced against the true dedicated NUers who can actually play a little bit. I think that the information and support advantage Eternally has can be a pretty big factor here, so unless ict changes it up in just the right way, then I feel like it's going to be hard for him to really get an advantageous match-up, which he may need against a strong NU mainstay like Eternally if he wants to emerge victorious. Cool game overall though, fan of both of them as players.
SPACE FORCE meeps (51) vs (49) Realistic Waters - This game is going to make absolutely no fucking sense. Both of them can use literally anything and seem to get away with it far more often than not. Both of them have trouble finishing games to a degree, but also have a lot of strong points as players, too. meeps seems to actually be going hardmode this SPL, so that's a plus for him as I think he has a higher ceiling as a player. However, RW's track record overall is a bit better. I think this is probably the closest of the bunch, but I favor meeps because I think he has found a way to control his cheesy bs a bit more than waters, who toes the line of unjustifiable a bit more often than not. Just stuff like spamming offensive Lure Steelix on teams that don't need it or teams that need the defensive presence for some things could tilt the scales against him. Not to mention...Pyroar? Why man. Anyway, meeps uses plenty of questionable shit, don't get me wrong. This year I feel like he's done well at finding a controlled midground between innovation and practical shit, so he is probably going to find a way to be more consistent than usual, so I predict him to edge RW out in a crazy, but close, game.
zf (65) vs (35) High Impulse - In one corner we got 1-0 "I guess" SPLX BWer zf and in the other we have fresh-out-of-2013 High Impulse. If someone hit me up back in November and was like yo, zf vs amir for SPLX BW OU Week 5, I'd tell them to ship me a large quantity of whatever they were fucking smoking because I could use a steady supply. Hell, I've been active throughout this SPL and I'm still not sure why this is even happening considering dice legit was playing quite well in BW aside from the SW game and amir in 2019 just kind of seems to not have the same identity as a player as he once did, but hey that can always be regained and here we are, so let's get it. zf seems to be trying hard to reinvent a tier with his myriad of fresh ideas, but honestly he is probably best off sticking with the tried-n-true here considering the opponent. zf's team against Ojama bordered on revolutionary and crazy, but it did the trick or at least gave him a shot to win, so that's definitely a large positive takeaway considering how strong an opponent that is to take-down in a debut. Just from speaking to zf, I can tell he knows what he's doing, but I can also tell that he's trying to be that dude who holds the flex in the mirror for a prolonged period of time at the gym so girls think he's naturally that muscular. He has a lot of unorthodox ideas and they could work wonders, but they could also lead to him shooting himself in the foot. If zf reigns it in a bit, he should be the favorite against amir, who we just really cannot say much about rn. He used to be a flashy offensive pilot that was capable of winning against stronger players, but is that still the case? Is he trying to reinvent himself? Is he even still good? Fuck if I know. I haven't been impressed with his two games so far, so there's no way I can predict him against a strong ass player like zf for now.
elodin (60) vs (40) Rewer - I didn't think things in Brazil were that rough, but I guess civil war has broken out this week. Somewhere, sogeking is desperately clawing to get out of his prematurely forced grave that he essentially dug himself into, but his efforts will ultimately be futile unfortunately. Overshadowing aside, elodin actually is a fairly strong, practiced BW player who should be able to effortlessly transition into the tier for a week or potentially the remainder of the way depending how things go. elodin really just has to make sure he brings a team he is comfortable with and that is actually solid as I feel like there's potential for his own voice and ideas to get drowned out by some other presences **cough** ABR **cough** in a tier where his own vision is as good as any on that team. That isn't even a shot at the team dynamic so much as a general hope that elodin tries to really think this through as Rewer is a strong opponent that you really cannot underestimate if you want to win. Rewer played a strong game for the most part last week and he's used two solid rain teams, even if he should've probably had a different set or two the first week. Regardless, I expect him to branch a bit this week and I am curious to see what that is. I expect elodin to win given his stronger track-record in the tier, but I feel like it can go either way and this is low-key a game I feel will be pretty quality. Good luck bros, hope for a fun spectacle here with no bullshit.
We Three Kings (60) vs (40) Sergi - 4-0 or not, W3K is a strong, but beatable opponent. At this point, his preferred playstyle has become clear, too, so the surprise factor is pretty much gone unless he has more tricks up his sleeve. I expect Sergi to break out of the sand balance confines of the comfort zone and perhaps bring something more dramatic and punishing to take advantage of the more reactionary defensive anti-spike measures that W3K has frequented thus far such as Reuniclus-based teams. I would not be surprised if we saw both of these guys use something different than their norms, perhaps fresh in general. W3K is the better player and he also has an underrated grasp on the metagame given what I have seen so far. There have been some slip-ups -- one game he pretty much neglected Alakazam and he did get pretty fortunate against Obii and dice, but overall the good outweighs the bad in my eyes. Sergi is still a bit of a question mark in my eyes, but not in terms of "if" he can play, but rather in terms of "how well" he can play compared to top players. He's had a couple rough, close losses if I recall correctly and he's used mostly solid, tried-n-true types of Sands. This is a week where he has to show what he has going and that he can string together net-positive sequences against someone who is at a clearly high level if he wants to get his break-out win in this field. Otherwise, it could be a really hard game for him to keep-up in and his long-term success in BW could be put into serious question. I think Sergi can do it and I actually am pretty inspired by his performances thus far in a general sense, but I find it hard to favor him just given W3K's winning thus far and also my uncertainty about the process/versatility that Sergi may or may not have as a player. Really curious to see more from both, should be a good one.
SoulWind (55) vs (45) Ojama - Finally, we get the game that every BW fanboy has been eagerly awaiting since the day of the draft. Both of these guys are top5 BW players overall and top3 in this pool without a doubt. I think that SoulWind has his fundamentals together in BW as well as literally anyone else to play the tier. He uses strong, rewarding teams on a consistent basis and has ridiculous outplaying potential. It is true that sometimes his execution can grow situationally sloppy, such as we saw against Sergi, but if he can go a full game without any hiccups, then beating him will be a challenge for anyone, Ojama included. I feel like SoulWind's scariest characteristic is actually one that oftentimes either gets overlooked or simply not understood. This guy is ridiculously versatile in terms of BW archetypes/structures. He can use the standard, everyday Sand balances that you see people like myself and BKC frequent. If he does that, he will be well-off against most guys, no doubt. But on top of that, he also is not afraid to pull out more punishing Sands or devastating Rain build, which are always a pain to face if not fully prepared. On top of this, SoulWind is not afraid to use cheesier stuff, too, which we have seen here-n-there in the past. Overall, I view SoulWind as the most complete BW player on Smogon. With this said, it's pretty hard to go against Ojama in any game. He has not looked amazing thus far, perhaps making a misplay against zf later on last week, but he has still looked quite good compared to most of the competition. I rank him among the top tier of players in this pool and think that his general playing ability coupled with his desire to use more creative, exploratory sets/cores/concepts makes him very hard to prepare for as an opponent. I think the main reason I predict SoulWind is simply because his teams are less likely to have random holes that could prove to be costly, but Ojama is known for outplaying that type of shit, so it's really a marginal difference between the two. I'm very much looking forward to this game. Hopefully there's no Sun or Baton Pass to ruin it.
elodin (60) vs (40) Rewer - I didn't think things in Brazil were that rough, but I guess civil war has broken out this week. Somewhere, sogeking is desperately clawing to get out of his prematurely forced grave that he essentially dug himself into, but his efforts will ultimately be futile unfortunately. Overshadowing aside, elodin actually is a fairly strong, practiced BW player who should be able to effortlessly transition into the tier for a week or potentially the remainder of the way depending how things go. elodin really just has to make sure he brings a team he is comfortable with and that is actually solid as I feel like there's potential for his own voice and ideas to get drowned out by some other presences **cough** ABR **cough** in a tier where his own vision is as good as any on that team. That isn't even a shot at the team dynamic so much as a general hope that elodin tries to really think this through as Rewer is a strong opponent that you really cannot underestimate if you want to win. Rewer played a strong game for the most part last week and he's used two solid rain teams, even if he should've probably had a different set or two the first week. Regardless, I expect him to branch a bit this week and I am curious to see what that is. I expect elodin to win given his stronger track-record in the tier, but I feel like it can go either way and this is low-key a game I feel will be pretty quality. Good luck bros, hope for a fun spectacle here with no bullshit.
We Three Kings (60) vs (40) Sergi - 4-0 or not, W3K is a strong, but beatable opponent. At this point, his preferred playstyle has become clear, too, so the surprise factor is pretty much gone unless he has more tricks up his sleeve. I expect Sergi to break out of the sand balance confines of the comfort zone and perhaps bring something more dramatic and punishing to take advantage of the more reactionary defensive anti-spike measures that W3K has frequented thus far such as Reuniclus-based teams. I would not be surprised if we saw both of these guys use something different than their norms, perhaps fresh in general. W3K is the better player and he also has an underrated grasp on the metagame given what I have seen so far. There have been some slip-ups -- one game he pretty much neglected Alakazam and he did get pretty fortunate against Obii and dice, but overall the good outweighs the bad in my eyes. Sergi is still a bit of a question mark in my eyes, but not in terms of "if" he can play, but rather in terms of "how well" he can play compared to top players. He's had a couple rough, close losses if I recall correctly and he's used mostly solid, tried-n-true types of Sands. This is a week where he has to show what he has going and that he can string together net-positive sequences against someone who is at a clearly high level if he wants to get his break-out win in this field. Otherwise, it could be a really hard game for him to keep-up in and his long-term success in BW could be put into serious question. I think Sergi can do it and I actually am pretty inspired by his performances thus far in a general sense, but I find it hard to favor him just given W3K's winning thus far and also my uncertainty about the process/versatility that Sergi may or may not have as a player. Really curious to see more from both, should be a good one.
SoulWind (55) vs (45) Ojama - Finally, we get the game that every BW fanboy has been eagerly awaiting since the day of the draft. Both of these guys are top5 BW players overall and top3 in this pool without a doubt. I think that SoulWind has his fundamentals together in BW as well as literally anyone else to play the tier. He uses strong, rewarding teams on a consistent basis and has ridiculous outplaying potential. It is true that sometimes his execution can grow situationally sloppy, such as we saw against Sergi, but if he can go a full game without any hiccups, then beating him will be a challenge for anyone, Ojama included. I feel like SoulWind's scariest characteristic is actually one that oftentimes either gets overlooked or simply not understood. This guy is ridiculously versatile in terms of BW archetypes/structures. He can use the standard, everyday Sand balances that you see people like myself and BKC frequent. If he does that, he will be well-off against most guys, no doubt. But on top of that, he also is not afraid to pull out more punishing Sands or devastating Rain build, which are always a pain to face if not fully prepared. On top of this, SoulWind is not afraid to use cheesier stuff, too, which we have seen here-n-there in the past. Overall, I view SoulWind as the most complete BW player on Smogon. With this said, it's pretty hard to go against Ojama in any game. He has not looked amazing thus far, perhaps making a misplay against zf later on last week, but he has still looked quite good compared to most of the competition. I rank him among the top tier of players in this pool and think that his general playing ability coupled with his desire to use more creative, exploratory sets/cores/concepts makes him very hard to prepare for as an opponent. I think the main reason I predict SoulWind is simply because his teams are less likely to have random holes that could prove to be costly, but Ojama is known for outplaying that type of shit, so it's really a marginal difference between the two. I'm very much looking forward to this game. Hopefully there's no Sun or Baton Pass to ruin it.
SM RU: Kingler12345 (55) vs (45) lighthouses - Wow, this is an actual SPL game. I mean I guess it's not too shocking given how things in RU have been going thus far, but just wow... Anyway, I think that Kingler is legitimately poised to prove all the people who have been taking cracks at him as a player wrong and establish himself as some sort of threat as a player. I am a sucker for those kind of redemption, self-worth proving storylines, so I'll give the loaf a pity prediction since LH has been uninspiring in RU over the last year or so imo.
ORAS OU: Poek (49) vs (51) TDK - Actually has potential to be one of the highlights of the week imo. While I think that the post-game commentary was silly, I do think Poek played a really good game and looked far more at home in ORAS than he did in SM at the start. TDK has been a bit all over the place, but he finds his footing whenever shit gets important, so that's why this game is really appealing to me as a spectator. I'm especially hopeful that we will see some cool, wavy teams and aggressive, positioning-based plays that will prompt a lot of "HOW?" "GOAT" "IS HE HUMAN" etc. type responses from the peanut gallery. I think that TDK is the favorite because he's been around more lately and he's been in ORAS all tour, but that hardly matters considering Poek's always been strong and up-to-date in ORAS, so this really can go either way and I think this is second to Ojama-SW as favorite game of the week for me personally.
SM UU: Pak (55) vs (45) robjr - Two of my favorite UU players and honestly probably one of the most quality lower tier games we will see this tournament if it doesn't become a shitshow like every-other game inevitably has become this tour. Pak has evolved into a real man, an OU player pretty much, with his ridiculous string of outplaying this tournament thus far. robjr is really respectable with his methodical mid-game positioning, too. I think robjr is establishing himself as someone who is cutting down on mistakes more and more with time and honestly it's a great look, but he will still have his hands full with Pak, who oftentimes goes above-n-beyond with his gameplay. This one is sure to be a treat, good luck bros.
GSC OU: Arifeen (15) vs (85) Lavos - Jesus fucking christ, poor Arifeen LOL
ORAS OU: Poek (49) vs (51) TDK - Actually has potential to be one of the highlights of the week imo. While I think that the post-game commentary was silly, I do think Poek played a really good game and looked far more at home in ORAS than he did in SM at the start. TDK has been a bit all over the place, but he finds his footing whenever shit gets important, so that's why this game is really appealing to me as a spectator. I'm especially hopeful that we will see some cool, wavy teams and aggressive, positioning-based plays that will prompt a lot of "HOW?" "GOAT" "IS HE HUMAN" etc. type responses from the peanut gallery. I think that TDK is the favorite because he's been around more lately and he's been in ORAS all tour, but that hardly matters considering Poek's always been strong and up-to-date in ORAS, so this really can go either way and I think this is second to Ojama-SW as favorite game of the week for me personally.
SM UU: Pak (55) vs (45) robjr - Two of my favorite UU players and honestly probably one of the most quality lower tier games we will see this tournament if it doesn't become a shitshow like every-other game inevitably has become this tour. Pak has evolved into a real man, an OU player pretty much, with his ridiculous string of outplaying this tournament thus far. robjr is really respectable with his methodical mid-game positioning, too. I think robjr is establishing himself as someone who is cutting down on mistakes more and more with time and honestly it's a great look, but he will still have his hands full with Pak, who oftentimes goes above-n-beyond with his gameplay. This one is sure to be a treat, good luck bros.
GSC OU: Arifeen (15) vs (85) Lavos - Jesus fucking christ, poor Arifeen LOL
Playing FLCL 1-2pm on Saturday btw.
