SM OU: Charmflash (45) vs (55) Lopunny Kicks - Bit biased overall here given my history with the latter during Snake, but I think that Lopunny Kicks is just good at winning games at the end of the day. He is crafty and it is rarely pretty, but it works. I'd say that both of these guys are more mistake prone than your average 2-0 player, but both have been successful through showing high levels of prediction/outplay at their peaks and bringing teams that did well against their opponents. Lopunny Kicks I am more familiar with and I feel played a bit more solid, so I favor him, but this game could be close seeing as Charmflash has the ability to quite literally take any advantage his opponent may gain and then turn it back to haunt them with his trusty Ditt2-0. Great showings from both thus far and looking forward to a competitive match with creative teams regardless of the outcome.
SM OU: Kickasser (45) vs (55) craing ;_; - I will hate on Ben to eternity if he doesn't show up or behaves in a silly fashion, but the guy showed these past two weeks and during SSD2 that he can play with the best still. With his creativity being second-to-none in terms of surprise factor and now also in terms of practical applications, he seems to be near his peak. Kickasser is just a solid slot who will use intriguing teams and play a game that is mostly rid of big mistakes. I don't rate him in the top-tier of players in this pool, but he is knocking on the door and with more consistency he may very well end up in that conversation. I think this match-up naturally favor Ben, however, seeing as he is far less predictable and has a higher ceiling in the game itself. After all, Ben has made a career out of beating up on conventionally solid opponents with his strategies, so I expect this to be more of the same, but with far less room for error than normal given how respectable an opponent Kickasser is.
SM UU: bugzinator (51) vs (49) robjr - With god on bugzinator's side, the team that might as well be titled "Sample HO with Scizor over Doublade" found its way into a relatively undeserving victory against top-threat Pak, leaving the Wolfpack's supposedly questionable UU slot at 2-0. Robjr, on the other hand, had a very quick-and-easy game week 2, dispatching of the UU Open winner with his beloved Celebi. Needless to say, I rate both of these two highly, especially given that I have worked with each of them when they have been successful in the past. However, bugzinator gets my prediction here by the slimmest of margins. Why? I feel like the lack of sample size he has relative to his opponent leads to an information advantage that can be very valuable for the combination of bugzinator, TDK, and manager Tony. Turns out support matters in lower tiers -- guess some other managers should take notes as this really is not as radical a mindset as various recent drafts seem to indicate. Nevertheless, hoping for a tightly-contested game that doesn't go beyond turn 35 between the pair.
SM RU: Welli0u (40) vs (60) Aeroblacktyl - Less to say on RU than the other metagames I am predicting, but I just want to say that MoP has looked as sharp as ever with his gameplay and his normal brand of unpredictability blended with personalized techs is being repped quite well. I am still pretty high on Welli0u despite the nightmare start to the season and I likely will remain this way in the face of a potential 0-3, but I think that given how well MoP has been doing, it would be hard to favor the underrated Frenchman.
SM NU: Eternally (51) vs (49) Realistic Waters - Speak of nightmare starts, here's another for the Wolfpack's lower tiers, sadly. I do see light at the end of the tunnel, however, as Eternally had a phenomenal showing during SSD2 and is one of the more calculated pilots in the playerbase, reassuring me that this is merely a brief dry-spell as opposed to full-on tilt. Realistic Waters is obviously the flashy type and has potential to run-away with any game on sheer early-game surprise value or calling someone on a overpredict at the right time. However, I think that these antics are less likely to lead to a positive outcome against a motivated Eternally, who is arguably the most familiar and practiced with the tier of anyone in the field, when compared to less experienced alternatives. The game should be close given how well Realistic Waters has been doing and I would not be surprised to see him take it just because that is how the tournament feels like it is going for RW compared to Eternally thus far, but my gut and brain both say Eternally despite the last two weeks, so we're going with that!
BW OU: Sergi (40) vs (60) Ojama - Ojama continues to make more unconventional sets or cores work while playing a solid, no-nonsense game. Gotta respect that approach. Sergi is actually a surprisingly strong prospect himself, piloting respectable builds twice without many mistakes aside from one errant turn against Obii, which in itself was not even a misplay in the eyes of everyone. The newest addition to the BW playerbase has been impressive, to put it briefly and generally. I expect him to give Ojama a run for his money and perhaps even take this game if he can either match-up well or generate an early-game sequence that is net-positive. Unfortunately, I find that to be unlikely given the amount of extra experience Ojama has -- this isn't even a metagame specific comment either as he simply has been around and in tournaments like this one for longer than most people have even been playing the game on here. Overall, gotta favor Ojama, but I hope for a close game with some interesting ideas thrown about.
DPP OU: DeepBlueC (60) vs (40) giara - Neither has looked ridiculously impressive, but DBC has looked pretty solid at least and he brought teams that gave him a strong shot at winning. giara seemed to have a mechanical miscue game 1 and then perhaps made some less-than-ideal moves game 2, but he does have a positive track-record in DPP prior to this SPL. I think DBC has looked better recently and has a more modernized grasp on teambuilding and preparation, so I naturally gravitate towards favoring him. However, with the Scooters doing well and perhaps coming together more as a group, I think giara will be able to use the expertise of Ojama/Phil/etc. in teambuilding to perhaps neutralize the teambuilding front, if not make it a positive, and that can go a long way in DPP as giara is by no means a bad turn-by-turn player. This can be close, but I favor DBC overall.
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SM OU: BHARATH_THEBEST (55) vs (45) Poek - Two disappointing weeks for both and now only one of them can start their hopeful comeback this week. Which one? I feel like it will be BTB as he has a bit more positive history in the tier over the past year or so and I think he's more likely to pick something that will match-up well. Poek seems to have been on the rough side of a couple games thus far and I think that there needs to be some change in the teambuilding or the process utilized to pick the strategies that he wishes to deploy each week in order to let himself reach his clearly high potential as a player. Until I see evidence that there is some change on that front, I will struggle to be too confident in this slot. On the other hand, BTB has just had two close games that were lost perhaps due to things that were not fully within his own control. Both of these guys have potential to be really good despite their 0-2, but I just think BTB is a small step closer currently.
SM OU: Leru (49) vs (51) Mana - Leru is a weird case because he seems to "power-up" as his timer dwindles, seemingly giving him more confidence to take risks as the timer goes from near full to five seconds within the first dozen or so turns of each games. The main catch is that those risks are sometimes misguided, causing him to fall short in a very winnable week 1 match and perhaps not maximize his odds in a bizarre week 2 match. With that said, he got it covered in the results department with a strong SSD2 showing and then that aforementioned win against top player Gama last week. I find it hard to consistently predict for him to win because he's a timeout risk and I think he can tie himself up into suboptimal positions that he doesn't always find ways out of. Mana, on the other hand, is still shedding off rust, but showed a lot of more of "ceiling" than "floor" against Sorry, specifically later on in the game with what may very well have been the most impressive prolonged sequence under-pressure of his brief career. Overall, I think this is probably one of the three closest SM games this week, but I favor Mana seeing as he individually has a better teambuilding footpring whereas Leru is more of a pilot than a well-rounded SM presence given what I know (could be wrong as I have never worked with him, but it only makes sense given ABR and whatnot). I think the element of personalization and comfort will go a long way towards letting Mana play to his potential whereas Leru is a risk on a number of fronts, as I explained above. I am really excited to see the teams and plays in this game regardless as I think both are pretty strong overall.
SM UU: HT (40) vs Christo (60) - Stronger player with much more support. HT is a crafty player and always finds a way to go about even, but I think his ceiling is around there whereas Christo is simply above and beyond. Will be interested in seeing what the Tyrants cook up here, but I think so long as it is solid and Christo plays as well as he usually does, it should be in his favor. Perhaps HT can take some calculated risks in the teambuilder that could work wonders once again -- maybe he will be confident to do so after seeing how smart the Kyurem pick was against Harris. However, you cannot assume for this to happen each week, so Christo feels like the pick to me.
SM RU: Ajna (60) vs (40) aim - Ajna is really just the best at this tier. aim is a strong opponent and it's hard to be lower than 40/60 because of this, but Ajna is going to be favored pretty much every week besides when he plays a sane KW, so this is just more of the same in that regard. I expect aim to take a more to-the-point offensive approach and Ajna to have a pretty calculated, systematic approach as to how to dispatch of his threats without losing too much steam.
SM NU: elodin (55) vs ict (45) - Not sure what to expect here at all really, but elodin has more experience in the tier and there's also some recency bias deep within me, so I'll favor him despite both having great showings W1 and poor showings W2, which would otherwise make it a toss-up probably. A lot hinges on the specific threats they try to integrate into their teams to make progress here, to be honest. I feel like a rogue Vanilluxe or random Block Slowbro can potentially make a game like this get out of hand quickly if played in a timely fashion.
ORAS OU: ABR (51) vs (49) blunder - Not a ton to say on ORAS, but in my heart of hearts I desperately want both to use Chansey + Scarf Magnezone fat against each other and play one of the most awkward games in all of ORAS SPL history while 500 people LOL for an hour and change on SmogonTours. Favoring ABR slightly, but it might as well be a toss-up as they're both solid and know each-other a lot.
BW OU: obii (35) vs (65) We Three Kings - W3K is quietly cementing himself as a very respectable BW player. Despite some periodic hiccups week 1, he still played an alright game and brought in a fortunate win against a top opponent. Week 2? More of the same in the results department, but this time it felt a bit more put-together as he came back from behind and utilized everything he had at his disposal to win a game that did not seem too easy from a spectator's perspective. obii is no pushover, but he will need to do more than merely prepare for CM + BoltBeam Psychic types in order to emerge victorious here. obii is going to have to play a pretty impressive game to win this seeing as any lapses in momentum or position will be easily taken advantage of by someone like W3K. I think ultimately, a bad turn or sequence for obii will set him behind and W3K will not look back, winning with another strong showing. However, if obii plays a misplay free game, this might as well be 55/45 instead of 35/65.
DPP OU: Malekith (65) vs (35) GaryTheGengar - Turns out it took a wild Italian on the opposing end to provoke the fire we all knew was inside Malekith. With that said, he has an opponent who has a full week to prepare this week, but I still favor him comfortably. GTG played a fine game against Jimmy, but was ultimately outmatched by a strong team and a number of successful positioning-oriented moves by JTurt that very methodically turned the game in his favor, leaving the Tyrant's DPPer at 0-2. I think this game will be similar to that, but with Malekith taking a bit more of an offensive approach than JTurt. Ultimately, a combination of aggressive reads and timely conservatism will probably be found more in a long-time DPP mind like Malekith than it will be in GTG, which will be vital in what I reckon will be a more offensive game than most in this metagame.
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SM OU: Sabella (45) vs (55) Empo - Two of the more respectable dudes in the field, pitted against each other in what is sure to be a fun one. I expect two more flashy bulky-offensive squads from each, perhaps making use of more creative synergy or lures. I think that Empo has been one of the strongest SM players thus far, so I favor him, but Sabella is not as far behind as one might imagine, so I hope for a close game above all else here.
SM OU: Cdumas (65) vs (35) imsosorrylol - I just can't see a world where Cdumas starts 0-3, which is unfortunate as sorry is better than 0-3 as well. Sometimes, that's how the cookie crumbles, sadly. Both have their pros and cons as players, but Cdumas has been one of the best for a couple years now and that's nothing to sleep on. sorry has to take baby steps to normalize the process of preparing for and playing in higher-stakes team tournament games. Sooner or later, he will get to where he needs to and blossom into a force in this playerbase. However, he is not all the way there yet whereas Cdumas is, so naturally the Frenchman is favored, unless sorry brings out stall, in which case all bets are off!
SM UU: Sage (35) vs Pearl (65) - With his first win under his belt, I cannot see myself predicting Pearl to lose unless he seems to be off his game at some other future point. He's the strongest lower tier player currently in my eyes and Sage is just not quite on par with that. Could be a close one overall as Sage is pretty crafty, but I think Pearl will keep the ball rolling here.
SM RU: KW (51) vs (49) passion - No real clue how good passion is or if he keeps up with RU a ton, so I just naturally slightly favor the opponent given my ignorance. There is not much more to say here, but I hope he has an eventful debut at least.
SM NU: Kushalos (40) vs (60) LAX - LAX is probably the most dynamic NU player currently and he just added another page to the playbook with stall last week, so that makes him quite the menace to prepare for. Having dealt with Kushalos last year, I think that means this calls for some funky balance from him, which unfortunately is just what LAX will be looking for from the flashy European this match. I think that LAX will overload on the creative, synergetic offensive pieces and be able to win the game with brute force and aggressive positioning in the earlier stages, much like he does in most of his successful NU games within recent memory. Kushalos is by no means a huge underdog here as he's close to just about anyone in NU, but I think that he will try to spread himself a bit thin with his teambuilding whereas LAX will focus on doing his own thing once he picks a focus. Teambulding predictions aside, LAX just strikes me as the more consistent of the pair, too, which bodes well for him similarly to the other things I mention. I think that if Kushalos perhaps takes it easy and focuses on his own ideas with a standard structure to support them, then he can perhaps keep it simple and play his wild game, letting him open up advantages earlier on and run away with it. But I am not confident that he can pull that off against LAX, especially given how much LAX can use that he will feel pressured into accounting for.
BW OU: FLCL (60) vs (40) Rewer - Not much to say here as I am yet to witness much from Rewer in BW, but I have at least heard promising things. I still think Luigi is a serviceable pick, but perhaps Rewer has a bit higher a ceiling to work with, so we shall see. FLCL, on the other hand, undoubtedly belongs in this field and is boasting a 2-0 after a dominant win against Posho. Expect more of the same from the ballsy Canadian here.
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SM OU: bro fist (60) vs (40) Sacri' - Quietly, John has started 0-2 despite not making too many mistakes in-game, which is unfortunate. Sacri', on the other hand, has made a bit more noise with his 2-0 start. While this is impressive and I expect Sacri' to win more games in future weeks, I think he suffers his first loss here against a motivated bro fist. John is obviously a good player and wins will come with time and a larger sample size, no matter how frustrating the start may be. John is not really one to tilt or start fucking around, so as long as he keeps doing his thing, I think he is the clear favorite here. Sacri' brings solid teams, but they are almost all bulky-offense or faster paced balances, which can be manipulated. Perhaps if he tries to make use of a different pace of team or plays at his ceiling, he can emerge victorious here, but I personally would not count on it.
SM OU: Talah (35) vs (65) Eternal Spirit - Rough draw for Talah here. Gama is coming off of an arguably undeserved loss, but he did not play perfectly either. With that said, he is still one of the best SM players and he has a phenomenal streak, spanning over multiple years. I think that he is simply the better of the two players in this contest. This paired with it being hard for just about anyone to come up with a way to contain him team wise makes me think that this match-up is trouble for Talah, who is slowly gaining the title of well-known and respected teambuilder. I think that a more risky team coupled with aggressive play could let the Talah steal this one away, but I would not count on that all working out against someone as strong as Gama.
SM UU: Pak (65) vs (35) HarrisIsAwesome - Contrary to popular belief, Harris has not played particularly poor in his first two games aside from one sequence against Christo. Hell, against HT he played a near flawless game, but he could not do shit in the long-term due to the team he used being weak as fuck to SubRoost Kyurem. Harris is not bad and belongs in this field as a gameplayer. The thing is that Pak does not only belong in this field, but he very well could dominate this field if the game is to cooperate, which it unfortunately did not last week. Pak has played some pretty ridiculous Pokemon in recent months and I expect this no-nonsense, consistently punishing approach to reward the controversially-chested UU player once more. I really love to watch Pak play as I describe above, by the way, as he turns a lot of harder turns or net-negative sequences into far more manageable positions without compromising much on a consistent basis. This is something that I feel almost nobody else in the lower tier fields can do as often, making him stand-out from the competition and appear as a very high level opponent for someone struggling to break-in like Harris.
SM RU: Kingler12345 (25) vs (75) Pohjis - Ok, Kingler had his fun with broken ass Meloetta last week. Now, we're back to reality and he's against lower tier mastermind, Grand Slam semi-finalist Pohjis who is worth more this SPL than Kingler's career as a whole is worth. Sure, Pohjis had a pretty costly lapse late-game last week, but let's not forget who he is and suddenly associate him with some of Smogon's finest game-throwers. Pohjis is a ridiculous teammate supposedly and also a thorough teambuilder. He is able to adapt to just about any metagame while also playing a strong, no-nonsense game more often than not. He is the clear favorite here, especially considering Kingler's RU resume literally has nothing on it that dates back further than 2 days ago and his main source of support is Kaori lurking in the RU room on PS main while probably discussing epic SPOILERS in the Anime and Manga room.
SM NU: SPACE FORCE meeps (55) vs Osh (45) - Alright, I'll admit it -- Osh has looked pretty lit so far. Have there been mistakes? Sure, but the same can be said for just about anyone. While I am not totally on board with the structures he has brought, they have at least been able to check the majority of threats you can find rn, so that's a step in the right direction, and he obviously has a decent enough sense of what to do in order to win games. Unfortunately, he's up against 2-0 meeps, who seems to be back in form, meaning you can expect a steady diet of techs that you can't really see coming until you're already screwed over. meeps has a pretty methodical approach that is predictable at the surface, but actually impossible to predict when you go into specifics. He can use just about any type of gimmick or pseudo-standard team with a fun, flashy concept integrated, but you really are never sure what exactly it will be or how to react to that type of tendency from an opponent. I think Osh will struggle to solve this, much like the last two opponents meeps has had, giving the Raiders NUer a decent advantage in this match.
BW OU: SoulWind (49) vs (51) dice - Really glad we get this game. I think that these two are my favorite BWers in the field in terms of teambuilding and gameplay. dice has actually looked really good on both fronts thus far, but the results have not quite came in. This should not discourage the Tigers, nor their BW player, seeing as he clearly can and will win in this field with a larger sample size under his belt. dice has been really particular in picking what he uses, but his gameplay has been quite diverse, encompassing some more precise conservative feeling out and some more flashy, aggressive maneuvering in order to try and make progress depending on the situation. I think that dice has the wiedest range and potential for variance among the people in the BW field; this can work wonders against someone like SoulWind, who is a very conventionally solid and calculated opponent. While SoulWind is normally nearly perfect when it comes to avoiding misplays and making the best of neutral-to-good positions with fairly standard structures, last week he did make a potentially costly mistake. Thankfully, some Excadrill heroics saved him from what otherwise could have been an unchracteristic loss. With this said, there should be no worry for him or the Raiders as he now has the challenging first win under his belt and he's more than capable of winning most, if not all, of his remaining games. For SoulWind, the big thing is just not being too safe with his team choice against someone like dice as he will likely be against something that the new-age kiddos would describe as "heat", but in reality is just an anti-meta strategy or tech of some sort that can work in particular situations. If SoulWind can avoid falling into predictable sequences that can be taken advantage of, then he is likely going to have a good chance to win given his strong sense of when to make a play and when to hold back. I think I favor dice given what I have seen these first two weeks, regardless of their records. Honestly though, this can go either way and it is easily my favorite game this week. Pls no Sun or Rain Stall or Baton Pass ;_;
DPP OU: roscoe (75) vs (25) 6A9 Ace Matador - I don't wanna write more after ^, but if Roscoe loses to AM then I will never stop fucking with him, even if I'm 0-68 lmfao.