elodin (45) vs (55) Jirachee - Phil seems to have lost his touch over the past year or two and he has some unconventional team picks so far, but I think this matchup plays in his favor as he can default to his norm pretty comfortably (if norms even exist in this meta anymore). Elodin has been equipped with some pretty potent Ojama teams and they can role over anyone at the right time, but I think it’ll be hard to counterstyle Phil sufficiently without some pretty extreme measures, even if Ojama teamed with him last year just given his style. Overall, this is a close match, much closer than the price tags would leave you thinking, and Elodin has a bit more momentum coming in, but I just find Phil to be better at managing the game in the long term and his superior grasp on the tier as an individual will go a long way here as well, so I’m slightly favoring him assuming he doesn’t flop and play a passive early/mid-game.
Funkasaurus (60) vs (40) bluri - Two players who had weird wins last week for entirely different reasons. Bluri looked better than Funk week two as he dominated his opponent, Luck, in a game where the team matchup most would honestly expect to be flipped whereas Funk won in a rare, mistake-ridden game against McMeghan that came down to the wire. With that said, beating a top player like Roro isn’t something to be overlooked regardless of how it transpired and I feel like Funk has a much greater independent grasp on preparation, especially after talking to him about his teams — not to mention he is coming off a win against Bluri, himself, in WCOP after some nasty words were used by the fireball German beforehand. The main thing here is that I think Bluri’s “niche” of being able to pull out anything is kept in check by the Cryonicles BWer as Funk has shown in his brief time in BW this past year that he, too, isn’t afraid to cheese or use risky teams (Sun, Rain Stall, etc.). Given that, I’m really unsure what to expect from both as really anything can happen, but I feel more confident in Funk’s piloting of team archetypes across the board, especially on the stalker end of the spectrum, than Bluri. Don’t be surprised if preview plays a large role in deciding this one, however, as there is a bit of a rock-paper-scissors element to some of the trends forming in the meta and both of these players aren’t afraid of embracing that for better or worse.
SoulWind (40) vs (60) McMeghan - Top two ranked players in BW and rightfully so — this game should be touted as a clash of the titans. SoulWind is a long-time BW regular and seen as one of the giants of the tier, going positive in every SPL in recent memory playing BW, whereas Roro is one of the best players of all time, winning two SmogonTours win BW included and doing well in a number of team tournaments as well. While the rankings had SoulWind at #1, I personally favor the crafty Belgian over the raging Spaniard. While SoulWind likely has greater support aboard the close-knit Wolfpack ship and he has shown that he isn’t afraid to branch out and adapt to the metagame, I feel like McMeghan excels the most at times like this — the metagame of the past is changing, there are new strategies to explore, and there are plenty of different ways to approach the game and I feel that he will find the one that is not only the best fit to his own play style, but also one that also works for the game itself against his opponent. SoulWind’s understanding of the tier is unquestionably solid, but his ability to dissect the game at large and use everything possible out there to his advantage simply lacks in comparison to McMeghan — quite frankly, I’m not sure if anyone’s up to par with McMeghan in this category. I think gameplay is roughly even between the two in the tier after they both got off to mediocre starts compared to the lofty expectations set for them both, but the field feels stacked in favor of McMeghan here in a game that I hope will not only be a joy for spectators, but also progress the metagame itself. Regardless of the result, I expect both to surge forward and end positive even if one has to start 1-2.
dice (70) vs (30) jacob - Zoro being MIA this week is a cause for concern for the Ruiners, a team trying to keep up with the competition after an unfortunate start. Dice has gotten off to a fortunate, but strong start after winning week one and getting lucky in a win week two. I think his teambuilding is on par with the best right now and while his gameplay got sloppy later on last week, he made some strong reads earlier on and, if he is on top of the ball, is clearly higher than that of Jacob. While Jacob is a mostly unproven prospect in terms of BW play, I can personally attest to his basic competency in the tier and I think he can put up a good fight, but he still lacks experience and support to help him craft a sufficient team and understand how to manipulate the tendencies of his opponent. Overall, I think Dice is just better in every regard and we know too-little of Jacob to make any major assumptions as to why we should think otherwise, so clearly favoring the Tyrant’s BWer here.