Sports NBA Thread: 2022-2023 Season

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I cannot stand how the 76ers play the game so I'm glad they're out they're unwatchable for me but I do feel for the fans going out like this is painful especially given recent history being unable to get out of r2.
 

awyp

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i feel for harden, one of my favorite players but harden can't get all the blame the whole team as absolute dogshit, the only one i cant blame is old man pj tucker
 

awyp

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So some thoughts and predictions:

I've been saying I think the Nuggets match up really well against the Lakers, I think if Lakers got the Suns that I think Lakers would get into the Finals because of pure matchups. Jokic is a bit too big for AD, not saying AD can't handle but in the Bubble year they went with McGee / Howard to take pressure off on AD, but now they currently have no option and might have to give Mo Bamba some minutes. AD in my opinion will be gassed on the defensive end. Aaron Gordan is a great defender and I think will matchup really well with Lebron, Lebron from 2 1/2 years ago is different than today. Age has caught up to him in my opinion especially after the injury 2 months ago. I still think he's a top 10-15 player but not as dominant as he once was 3 years ago where you can make an argument he was top 3-5. This Nuggets team has only gotten better and this Lakers team is worse from the Bubble. They acting like Schroder is Rondo from the bubble, he aint that. Schroder for the longest time has been a defensive liability (prior to this year). You remove Schroder out the equation you have to put Vanderbilt on a guard because defensively all your guards are middle of the pack / below average. I think Murray will have a series, and I think MPJ is the key factor in order for them to blow this series out the park. They don't need MPJ to go crazy to even win but they need that 3rd / 4th player to put up 15-20 points at a given night.

Nuggets in 6
 
(1) Denver Nuggets versus (7) Los Angeles Lakers

“I believe the only muscles you need in basketball are the ones in your brain.” – Nikola Jokic

A rematch from the bubble isn’t exactly what I expected, but I’ll take it for entertainment. Both teams have radically shifted the margins of their roster the past three years. Jokic improved tremendously, and LeBron has become older. Will the result change?

The most important and maybe the only important thing to make note of in this matchup is how Jokic/AD fair one-on-one. The matchup between the tallest players on the court who have the most talent will decide the pace, scoring, and defense of both teams. Jokic represents the hub of the best offense. AD represents the backline of the best defense. It’s truly a question of the age old of immovable force versus unstoppable object. Either the greatest offense falters or the greatest defense falters, and the way these two centers play will trickle down to the rest of the roster fittingly over the course of the series.

In 2020, Los Angeles has the benefit of having a plethora of physical big men. Dwight Howard most notably was a key in that series, and frustrated Jokic with physical play and added on extra fouls. Today, Los Angeles does not play a legit center behind AD and instead has opted for LeBron at center during these playoffs. So, Darvin Ham can go about this in a few ways. He can have AD help off Gordon while someone like Vanderbilt guards Jokic in order to keep AD on the floor and out of potential foul trouble. He can also trust AD’s individual defense and try to get Jokic in foul trouble instead. Either way, it’s a very peculiar offense Los Angeles isn’t immediately equipped to stop as Jokic is a player you simply must stay attached to, and if AD is attached to him, that leaves the paint more open for cuts and drives. Guys like LeBron and Vanderbilt will have to hold up strong at the rim if that is the case. I’m very interested in seeing what Ham attempts to defend Denver’s offense with more limited choice in frontcourt players.

Conversely, Malone could have Gordon on AD or switch on AD quite often. I like his chances better than most of what we've seen AD as far as who he's been matched up against. If you give KD trouble, you may be able to do the same for AD.

Gordon/James will surely be interesting, and I imagine James will make the most of his help defense when he can. It’s up to Gordon to punish with threes and cuts out of the dunker spot. He did very well when given Durant. James comes with more strength and IQ. My only concern when it comes to LeBron is his conditioning with Denver’s altitude. His shot has left him, so will Denver zone him out and make it harder for him to post? LeBron will have to use more stamina than he has thus far and make more long-distance shots.

We should also expect James to go matchup hunting even more in this series than the last. He will likely want to target Murray, who is the only other important piece on this team. In fact, it would be smart for Los Angeles to run both Jokic/Murray in a pick and roll with LeBron/AD. If they can legitimately contain Jokic/Murray pick and roll and attack it successfully, Los Angeles will easily be in the driver’s seat to the NBA Finals because that’d put that much pressure on Jokic to try to force doubles with his one-on-one play.

Murray will want to do as much matchup hunting and try to keep the Denver backcourt competitive with Los Angeles’ backcourt. I’m not too keen on how well he’ll be able to do that considering Curry couldn’t in Round 2, but he is more of the isolation scorer than he is.

I feel this series hangs on the two centers, and I genuinely think both teams have strong arguments to be favored to advance. Denver’s homecourt advantage and altitude is not what Los Angeles exactly needed considering both of their stars do better when they have rest. Then on the other side, you have an opposing center who can draw fouls on Jokic and a tall forward who can attack and draw fouls on Murray. That was exactly the combination it took for Los Angeles to walk by them in 2020. Will it replicate? You know I always put my money on defense.

Denver wins if: Los Angeles fails to contain Jokic individually one-on-one, and he successfully draws AD out of the paint for long stretches. AD can’t stay on the floor or in the paint. LeBron can’t shoot or consistently be successful on offense. Murray manages to orchestrate good offense and not be a liability on defense. Gordo. Brings a defensive masterclass effort. Denver can quicken the pace, keep Los Angeles off the line, and maintain their offensive efficiency.

Los Angeles wins if: Jokic loses his individual matchup with AD, and AD remains a defensive force. LeBron picks on Denver’s perimeter and kills them from the post. Murray can’t cook against Los Angeles’ backcourt, and is getting cooked himself. Los Angeles slows the pace, gets to the line, and LeBron/Vanderbilt are great when AD is attached to Jokic.

Lakers in six.

Heat/Celtics

Honestly, I'm tired of talking about this series. Spoelstra is amazing with a limited roster, Celtics are talented. I don't know. I don't care.
 
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  • Malone has to do something other than letting LeBron go one on one with Murray in the post. Pretty sure this is exactly what DerrickRose was talking about. The doubles came way too late and it was a good shot for the Lakers every time.
  • Jokic had an incredible game, but he went cold after Ham's decision to put Rui on him and let AD help off of Gordon. Gordon needs to be involved in more P&R or offball screening action while he's being guarded by AD.
  • D'Angelo Russell sucks.

Those are my takeaways. Looks like we're gonna get a good series! I'm cautiously optimistic about the Nuggets' chances.
 

awyp

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Boston vs Miami

Ight so I thought Miami was going to lose to Milwaukee. They didn't and proved me wrong, I mean don't get me wrong I'm heavy on the Bucks / Giannis and I thought the team was championship caliber. Here come the Knicks and I'm like okay the Knicks getting Miami is a dub because if they got the Bucks it would've been BBQ chicken. Knicks nation hyped up, J Brunson giving the city hope. Jimmy Butler turns into Michael Jordan lol.

Ight so I've been doubting them all along but the Celtics are a real team, I think it'll be a very close series and I think Miami has what it takes to get to the final but thing to keep an eye for is can Jimmy consistently score 30 a game (this is a big one). Can Bam be averaging anywhere from 20-25 every given night and grab 10-12 boards a game. Straus, Robinson, Vincent, Lowry all have to step up on a given night. The expectation from the players on the heats side is a lot, where in the Celtics they have a lot of options they can roll with I think.

I think Celtics in 5, I hope I'm wrong and Heat win but that's how I see it. Especially with losing Herro and Dipo.
 
First half was all Denver. AD/Jokic mostly played each other single coverage, but Jokic seemed to get the better of that matchup mostly because of his assists and offensive rebounding. He was also consistently beating AD down the floor. LA transition defense is still a problem, and one must hope throughout the series they can effectively limit this team in transition. The difference between Golden State and Denver in transition is mostly about Jokic’s ability to rebound and instantly become an effective offensive hub. AD scored and played perfectly fine on offense, but none of that matters if he isn’t making a defensive impact.

AD only seemed to somewhat make a defensive impact when he was switched off Jokic and onto Gordon. In the second half, the adjustment Ham went with was Hachimura on Jokic. That certainly makes more sense than my Vanderbilt pick, and it proved for the time much more effective over the third and fourth quarters. Pace slowed down and Denver opted to get Murray involved in more pick and roll. Murray did fine offensively, but I want to see more from Gordon if AD is sagging off him. He’s 35% from three and is a fantastic offensive rebounder, so I would expect one of Denver’s major adjustments to LA’s adjustment to be about making Gordon effective with his space. Murray/Jokic pnr was still mostly good, and there were times LeBron was switched on Jokic. If Jokic can’t score on Hachimura consistently one-on-one, I’d be interested in Denver testing out a LeBron switch or go hunting for an AD switch in game 2. Murray may not always have his shot, so it’s important for Jokic to still prove he’s a threat to score regardless of who’s on him.

On the Lakers’ end of things, clearly the three-guard backcourt wasn’t going to work out in the first half because Denver’s frontline contains some of the best rebounders in the league. Russel was getting cooked by Murray, so only Reaves could contribute enough on that end. If LA does intend to play bigger, they’re going to go after Murray every chance they get. Denver needs to work harder going under screens to protect Murray as he ended the game with five fouls. These switches putting him on LeBron or Hachimura are problematic. That’s truly the only reason LA got back in the second half. They also get the best looks whenever Jokic sits. Rim protection is worse without him on the floor.

Game 2 will simply come down to whose adjustments and counter adjustments from game 1 work better. Can LA find a defensive scheme with Hachimura and other bigs to slow down Denver’s offense? Can Denver find a defensive scheme to protect Murray, foul less, and prevent paint scoring?
 
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awyp

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lmao im happy he landed in San Antonio the top 4 outside of Portland looked like terrible lands
 
have all the respect for heat players and especially that 3rd quarter run

but by god our late game execution is atrocious and gets worse every game. at first we don't pass to tatum at all, then he travels twice and throws the ball directly to the heat twice. jaylens finger was completely fricked and brogdon was the only one trying to make anything happen. big part is obviously mazzula's fault and the coaching gap in experience but it will never not astound me how tatum can go from philly game 6 to this. he's so inconsistent and it's absolutely painful as someone whose favorite team of all time is the 2017 Celtics.

also i said celtics in 6 before but this is definitely going 7 (still pick celtics tho). curious if they'll try to bring herro back for the latter half of the series
 

awyp

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have all the respect for heat players and especially that 3rd quarter run

but by god our late game execution is atrocious and gets worse every game. at first we don't pass to tatum at all, then he travels twice and throws the ball directly to the heat twice. jaylens finger was completely fricked and brogdon was the only one trying to make anything happen. big part is obviously mazzula's fault and the coaching gap in experience but it will never not astound me how tatum can go from philly game 6 to this. he's so inconsistent and it's absolutely painful as someone whose favorite team of all time is the 2017 Celtics.

also i said celtics in 6 before but this is definitely going 7 (still pick celtics tho). curious if they'll try to bring herro back for the latter half of the series
I doubt he comes back at all (Herro) during the rest of the playoffs.
 
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