Hey, guess I'll make the first 2020 post in this thread!
I'd like to share a recent event that transpired concerning the new Marks feature in SwSh - I thought about posting this in "Little things you like about Pokemon", but I'm not heavily invested in hunting Marks to gush over them, and, well...it was the other thing occurring simultaneously that shocked me (took a bit to sink in). Though I did barely anything, this was indeed a very rare occurrence worthy of being called 'amazing' (imo..!), so it's only fitting it should go here.
As the video displays, I managed to catch a wild Shiny Gossifleur on Route 3 with the Rare Mark to boot. I was merely EV training my team (beating up Rolycoly for some Def prior), and this was the first Gossifleur I ran into afterwards. I only wish I was recording at the time for whatever reason, to have caught this live!
I was surprised for sure, but didn't think too much of it initially - just an unusually lucky encounter. Then the Isle of Armor hit, and I stored Gossifleur in the PC for safekeeping. However, though I am not an avid Mark hunter, I soon realized this was more special than a regular wild Shiny; I just had to evaluate what kind of probability I was dealing with here.
Now, feel free to correct me, but according to published odds, my calculations are as follows; note that I have the Shiny Charm but not the Mark Charm (I caught Gossifleur before Isle of Armor, but I scrolled through my Bag regardless for clarity):-
A [wild Shiny w/ Charm] = 1/1365
B [Rare "Recluse" Mark] = 1/1000 (a fitting name, as it's the single rarest Mark)
Therefore, probability of both outcomes occurring simultaneously =
A x
B =
(1/1365) x
(1/1000) =
~1 in 1,365,000. LOL
Unless I made a noticeable error during this late night typing, this should be the base odds for such an occurrence. However, since I've battled 68 Gossifleur over the course of my playtime, I can't rule out the possibility of an elevated Shiny rate at play. In which case;
a 1.5% chance of
A+ ['boosted' wild Shiny w/ Charm] x
B =
(1/1024) x
(1/1000) =
~1 in 1,024,000.
Regardless of whichever it was, over 1 in a million chance is honestly unreal; I'll cherish this Gossifleur, and there's no reason why I can't turn her into a fully competitive Eldegoss down the track!
I don't expect anything of such rarity to happen to me ever again while playing Pokemon, in saying that....I haven't ruled out nabbing a 0.1% Safari/Sport Ball from the Cram-o-Matic yet.
Thanks for reading!
