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heres my low effort predicts as requested by the community
SM OU: psychicmewtwo vs BHARATH_THEBEST - hard to root against the guy that smoked the fuck out of shititup last week, btbs probably ready to bounce back but this mu can really go either way
SM OU: z0mOG vs Lednah - tyrants assemble
i think zoms the better player in this matchup
SM OU: FlamingVictini vs bro fist - been on fire as of late, only losing to the #1 ranked player this spl and given that he's been on east with bro fist for a while now, fv probably understands his playstyle more than anybody that has played him so far this spl and i think he's gonna take this game. this can easily be swayed in johns favour bc he is not a pushover and if he pulls out god playz, i can easily see him taking this game for sure. id say like 55-45 odds for this game
SM OU: Leftiez vs Eo Ut Mortus - eoat has a very high ceiling and has been very consistent this spl, leftiez has a high ceiling too but is generally more inconsistent, hes been doing well so far though. leftiez used some garbage ben gay team that was last seen 10+ months ago so idk what to expect from this game
SM OU: ABR vs Blackoblivion - gonna predict the upset cus im a beast
SM OU: Trosko vs Sabella - idk what to think about this game but 1 player has abr building for them, the other doesn't and both of his wins have came from using rain so,,,
SM OU: TDK vs CrashinBoomBang - tdks play has not been that impressive this spl honestly, cbb should win if he doesn't use do-nothing garbage because he has a bigger capability to outplay and limit tdks chances of winning @ all costs, as long as shit ass sm doesn't tilt him ofc, hes fire too
SM OU: Gondra vs aim - both players haven't had a great spl but i'll give this one to aim because he's the better overall player in this mu
You may be wondering: did Finchinator out-predict our ape in Week 6? Well, I tallied up the results, and the answer is....
No! Here's a quick summary.
Highlights from the past week include:
- Finch out-predicted our ape on sulcata vs. tiba
- Finch missed every single game of Classiest vs. Scooters. All of them wrong.
- Finch went 1-11 on UU/RU/NU games
- "Gondra is clearly the better player [than z0mog]"
With this week's outstanding prediction performance, we are now 94% certain that Finch is worse than an ape. For perspective, that's only 1% short of the commonly accepted standard for statistical significance in clinical studies! Perhaps Finch should have taken my offer to revise his predictions video. Alas! Maybe this week.
SM OU: FlamingVictini vs bro fist
SM OU: Leftiez vs Eo Ut Mortus
SM UU: Lycans vs Manipulative
SM RU: Feliburn vs Windsong
SM NU: elodin vs Kushalos
SM DOU: miltankmilk vs Jhon
ORAS OU: Mounts vs xray
BW OU: Go10 vs Posho
DPP OU: boudouche vs d0nut
ADV OU: Ojama vs Triangles
GSC OU: giara vs Mr.E
RBY OU: Alexander. vs marcoasd
just wanted to also drop my lax set in case anyone else is ambitious enough to try it out. it wasnt meant to be an intentionally memey/disrespectful set (Ciele pikachu!), i really had been trying for a few weeks to fit this lax set in a team and it was just working so well in tests on this build when paired with mag+veil+hwish. unfortunately didnt get to use it this game just given the way the MU was, but if anyone wants me to explain/link some epic replays where it 6-0s, just ask
e. lax is demanding credit for the idea to build around lax.. what the hec
SM OU: psychicmewtwo (45) vs (55) BHARATH_THEBEST - this prediction only holds true if BTB is allowed to pick his own team, but yea I think he has been the better player overall. Both are pretty close still, but btb has a better grasp on how to win games and if he avoids slip-ups like the one he had w/ Bulu against FV, then he should be able to keep up the high level play to position himself well. pm2 is a high ceiling player, too, but the buzz surrounding him has died down a bit since the first few weeks and god knows what he will bring after z0mog used Snorlax, so I really can't be too sure what to expect on this front
SM OU: z0mOG vs Lednah - already happened
SM NU: cb jose altuve (45) vs (55) Teddeh - I mean there is always a decent chance Meeps wins given the gimmicks he uses, but Teddeh has been the better player this tour, looking impressive in pretty much every game besides when he played Pohjis. Meeps threw last week and while he has had a monopoly over the pool of abstract team concepts in the tier, that does not necessarily correlate to clear-cut success at a high level, as shown by his middle-of-the-pack results so far. Teddeh has been the more solid and consistent of the two thus far, so favoring him in an interesting one.
BW OU: dice (65) vs (35) smurf - smurf has two general modes in BW: Rain HO w/ an unviable eeveelution and classic weatherless HO. dice is one of the most capable players when it comes to picking apart opponent's playstyles. should say enough in itself. smurf has been using some other teams/heist teams in recent games, so maybe he will have a shot if dice banks too much on him using a HO and he throws a curveball at dice, but I am not sure how likely that is.
SM OU: ABR (55) vs (45) Blackoblivion - Hard to predict against ABR and my friend BO is having success when I predict against him, so why not keep it that way (╯°□°）╯
SM OU: Trosko (51) vs (49) Sabella - Two dudes who I view as high ceiling and really entertaining players, so I definitely want to catch this one. With that said, I think Sabella has been more dynamic than ever the past few weeks with his plays and utilization of rain and whatnot, but Trosko is more than capable of keeping up with this. I'm really unsure if I go with my gut of Trosko or the results of the past few weeks in Sabella, but I'll lean Trosko because he has ABR's support and that seems to be pretty important in recent team tours (see: snake sm team/kanto oras this spl/east in wcop)
SM NU: Earth (45) vs (55) Pohjis - Pohjis has been surprisingly solid throughout the tournament and Earth never really got it going consistently even though he is not too shabby either. I could see this going either way as I like Earth's teams better, but Pohjis has been the better player and is having a solid year or so anyway, so I'll lean his way.
BW OU: SoulWind (60) vs (40) Shoka - Shoka is doing pretty well so far iirc, but SW is the historically stronger player and I have more faith in his team choices, so it really just boils down to that tbh.
SM OU: Cdumas (60) vs (40) p2 - cdu is playing pretty well overall even if he got outdone by CBB last week and p2 seems to lack the balls to go full-on wish killer, so I can't see him summoning a sufficient amount of goons to overwhelm zarel's supercomputer into winning him the game once again.
SM OU: Empo (45) vs (55) Eternal Spirit - I love watching both play and I think this will be a really neat match, but gotta go with ES just because he is still 5-1 and has been more consistent thus far just given that he has taken advantage of the opportunities at his disposal. I hope that Empo stays in and does well from here on out nevertheless
SM NU: lax (55) vs (45) Evan. - lax has been surprising to me thus far and I like (most) of what I see whereas Evan has had a similarly small sample size, but not stood out much. Hard to say, but going with what we have seen so far, slight edge goes to lax.
BW OU: ZoroDark (49) vs (51) McMeghan - bold prediction: Zoro finally puts effort into not using cheese and brings a team that is actually well built for roro. bold prediction #2: roro pulls out some cheese/gimmick and it fucks Zoro up anyway.
SM OU: TDK (45) vs (55) CrashinBoomBang - just like what I have seen out of CBB as a player more than what I have seen out of TDK as a player thus far, but obviously can go either way
SM OU: Gondra (49) vs (51) aim - cool game, not really sure what to expect tbh. fond of both as players, but I think aim wins given that he has more experience and the Cryos as a whole seem to have more momentum coming in, which will make this easier for him to execute given their environment
SM NU: Zukushiku (45) vs (55) ict - if ict keeps using those nicks then I desperately zuku to win tho,, cmon man
BW OU: BKC vs Arii Stella - Well, I predict the spectators win regardless of the outcome here. Either way there is likely to be some words exchanged and arguments, especially if there is relevant RNG though, and if Arii wins then it is likely ghosting accusations come out from every direction. For the sake of justice and smogon hearing the end of this before '19, I will hope for BKC to win, but who the fuck even knows lmao
SM OU: psychicmewtwo vs BHARATH_THEBEST 45-55 big fan of both players. gotta root for my man btb :D also think hes better than his 2-3 rec shows
SM OU: z0mog vs Lednah -game is already over but zomog wanted me to put it in anyway o.O
ORAS OU: blunder vs nihilillie -just cant see blunder losing this 75-25
SM OU: Flamingvictini vs brofist -just cant see FV lose atm prep and plays both p fire -60-40
SM OU: Leftiez vs Eo Ut Mortus
SM OU: ABR vs Blackoblivion
SM OU: Trosko vs Sabella 35-65
ORAS OU: Updated Kanto vs Znain -both are p fire. hoping kanto wins but can go either way -55-45
SM OU: Cdumas vs p2 -p2s chance to get revenge for the snake game :D
SM OU: Empo vs Eternal Spirit -empos last loss was unfortunate and his current score doesnt show how good he really is. however I still see ES slightly better 45-55
ORAS OU: Destiny Device vs Nintendi
SM OU: TDK vs CrashinBoomBang -TDK has had a rough spl and cbb showed last week he can also dominate his opp in SM
SM OU: Gondra vs aim
ORAS OU: R!cardo vs Poek -move Poek from SM into ORAS and he doesnt lose o.O 40-60
SM OU: psychicmewtwo vs BHARATH_THEBEST - well pm2 ate my ass week 1 and he just flat outplayed me so its something that stays with me but i do think the majority of teams this tour have not been very good at all just being weak to stupid things like volcarona so clearly his play is what keeps him afloat while BTB on the otherhand has had much better teams thus far and has also played at an equal level as pm2 so ill favor him just for team choice
SM OU: z0mOG vs Lednah -
SM OU: FlamingVictini vs bro fist - Theres not much to analyze here both these dudes are absolutes studs at this game. As far as play styles go i think FV might have a slight edge for his aggression over john but I feel FV has some very obvious trends in his builds that john can capitalize on so im leaving this as a 50/50.
SM OU: Leftiez vs Eo Ut Mortus - Toupip is someone that Ive loved to watch play and play against for while now and his attitude is great on how he approaches this game, I havent had the chance to talk to Eo much but I did get to play him and i had to admit after he played super well that game and then i went back and watched his other replays and he played real good in those to, bringing more offensive oriented teams and being a bit mroe aggressive in the early game are not what people expect from him so i think hes caught most people off guard. That being said i think leftiez is just heating up right now and this will be a strong game from him, so going with leftiez.
SM OU: Cdumas vs p2 - I think at both players top levels Cdu outclasses p2 by a decent margin but right now i dont think either of these guys have been playing that well. Cdu who for about 8 months was about the most consistent player you could find on the sight but recently it looks like hes hit a bit of a bump in the road, his decision making hasnt been as sharp recently and ive seen him make 1 or 2 glaring misplays this tour that being said even not at his best hes still no one to take likely on the other hand theres p2 who loads up a different variation of wax from week to week so its impossible to predict what nonsense we will see this week but i feel like he always ends up relying on surprises and odd teams to try and fish for wins where he doesnt have to outplay, which i guess is not a terrible strategy but it just shows his weaker points. He might be 3-2 now but i havent seen a super strong showing from since early last spl really besides his week 1 game so throwing this to Cdu.
SM OU: Empo vs Eternal Spirit - These are two guys who honestly i used to think were dogshit for a long while but over the last 6 months or so my opinion on that has completely changed. ES has seemed to really harness his ability to be ballsy as hell but without making any real game changing mistakes. Ive played empo alot over the time on PS hes grown from a wild ladder goon to a dependable player and someone to respect in any tournament game. That being said i think im just gonna go with the hot hand right now and pick ES
SM OU: TDK vs CrashinBoomBang - Love both these guys really hard to pick here. I think team building wise TDK has the clear advantage here, CBB has been reusing poek teams mainly all a bit to wild for my own taste but i think he and poek will have to think more outside the box and make something more solid if they want the teambuilding advantage on TDK. On the other hand i think playstyle wise CBB has a big advantage here hes super aggressive and you can never count him out of a game. This is not to say tdk cant play like that as well but he has a tendency to rely on fatter teams which cbb i feel would walk all over. If tdk can match cbbs aggressiveness i think he has a very high chance of winning this but hard to say if we will see that so going with cbb here
SM OU: Gondra vs aim - hmm hard to say here dont know to much about each players style outside of joey being very analytical during his games and always looking for a clear path to victory, but i havent been a strong fan of his teams while Gondra will have tdk helping him build. Think im gonna go with aim just on a gut feeling.
As you all may know, in Leftiez's game vs Sabella last week, Leftiez's timer ran to 0 and he was given the loss. Leftiez described what happened on his end as the following: https://pastebin.com/xZHu9Qtu
At first, we thought this was caused due to a connection issue on Leftiez's end, and thus did not bitch about the loss. Yet, the situation felt very odd, given that Leftiez's internet connection seemed to be fine (good enough that Leftiez was comfortable playing with the timer on). In the past few days it has come to our attention that the PS server itself is experiencing several issues, which I will describe in detail below. We believe Leftiez was affected by these issues and deserves a rematch (or at worst, the game is discarded). I am posting about this issue publicly because the TD team simply failed to respond to us or take any action after our discussions in private and have given a highly unsatisfactory response after several days of silence. While our immediate goal is to ensure the right call is made in this situation, other similar issues arose in the past week (such as Snou vs Azogue) and can arise in the future. We hope our post can be met with healthy discussion and eventual positive changes to both the decisions of the TD team and our overall timer policy/functionality.
Issues:
1) Server Freezing/Lagging
2) Timer Functionality
1) Perhaps the most prominent issue is the lagging/freezing that is occurring for chrome users (Leftiez confirmed he was using chrome before we knew the issue was chrome specific: https://puu.sh/ztzXi/8825c208a0.png. I'm sure most everyone is aware that Zarel has updated a quick patch for this issue till chrome is updated and many people have experienced this issue or heard about it to some degree, but here is some more video evidence of this issue occuring: https://streamable.com/rcm22, https://streamable.com/c6466. Based on Leftiez's description of what happened, we believe this freezing issue is the primary issue that caused him to be unable to select his move and have it register, and consequently time out.
2) To a lesser extent, we also noted some timer abnormalities. This was first noticed in Trosko vs Axel, where Axel was playing from 15-10 seconds left for several turns without regaining time by playing quickly, and at one point, we saw a message saying he had 10, then 15, then 10 seconds left. As a side tangent, this calls for the importance of clearly understanding how the timer functions (even ABR, a TD, thought it added 15 seconds after every move, but later independent testing seemed to show the time added is variable, but frequently 10 seconds). More importantly, however, it raises the likelyhood that the timer was malfunctioning in every game. Further investigation of that specific instance showed raises the possibility that this was simply the result of a display error, as described by our tournament host OP here: [https://pastebin.com/8uiXDmaa]. Operating under the assumptions made in this conclusion, I investigated a live recording of my game vs BlackOblivion (in which both of us felt the timer was acting abnormally). I found [https://pastebin.com/PXZLtk76], furthermore, the replay shows the exact same timer messages as the live recording. So regardless of whether we accept OPs argument and assumptions or not, we conclude there is some server-related timer issue.
Before I continue, I'd like to say OP has done an excellent job hosting the tournament so far. While I will take his name in order to communicate the unsatisfactory and frankly ridiculous reasons we have been given so far as to why nothing has happened yet, we see this more as a reflection of our overall TD policy and not on any individual. OP has already accepted the existence of the issues I highlighted earlier (moreso the first, he hasn't responded at all to my evidence regarding the existence of the second). OP has given us two main responses thus far:
A) We cannot prove beyond doubt that PS-related issues caused Leftiez to time out.
B) PS-related issues affected every single game of this week, and the result of every game cannot be discarded.
While both statements are true, they are incredibly weak arguments (if you can even consider the second statement an actual argument at all) and also contradictory (if you accept B, then A is loosely proven). Our responses:
A) We argue the burden of proof falls on the TDs to show server-related issues did not affect leftiez's game. We have already accepted the truth that everyone using Chrome experienced some degree of server freezing, and furthermore, I have also shown much more rigorously the existence of server-based timer malfunctioning than the TDs have shown it was purely visual. Given the acceptance of widespread server-based issue, the only logical assumption is that it would manifest itself in every game (which is, interestingly enough, the same logic that OP's point B relies on).
Furthermore, I'd like to appeal to a more general ideal: the function of the timer, and the purpose of Tournament Directors when it comes to making timer-related decisions. The timer has one fundamental purpose: To place a limit on a resource that is an integral aspect of this game - thinking time. However, when our game is played online, external factors can artificially limit thinking time or pre-emptively terminate a game. This is why we have DC rules and recreations. However, the TDs also need to ensure that players do not cheat by faking DCs and gaining more time. This is where a great deal of gray area lies. In our most recent years, our TDs have taken the approach of glorifying objectivity and developing as strict and exact rules as we can. But if this is what we want, why have TDs at all? Why not just appoint robots that follow the guidelines we set exactly? The reason we have humans is so they can make hard, subjective decisions that improve the quality of our tournaments. This is a responsibility the TDs have been skimping away from, perhaps in fear of backlash from our highly toxic community. In our case, demanding proof while knowingly aware we cannot provide hard proof (doing so would require we live record every game in anticipation of such an issue, and we can't go back in time to do that) is simply unethical and not how the TD team should be acting. Yet, it is happening under the guise of "objectivity" and "being fair." This is simply wrong and cowardly.
Note that even if you don't accept this point, our initial argument still stands and is sufficient to warrant a rematch.
B) Regarding the statement in general, it is important to qualify that the extent to which a game may have been affected by PS-related issues is vastly different from game to game. Many players not on chrome didn't experience freezing, and the timer issue is so small it would likely only have an affect in the few cases where players may have gotten low on timer. Furthermore, there is a world of difference from being slightly more pressured to think during an already high-pressure game due to server abnormalities (not to say this is necessarily insignificant, but in most cases it is) and simply having the game snatched from you by an external force totally out of your control. Furthermore, if you consider the "argument" in this statement, it's essentially saying "we can't fix everything, so we're not gonna fix anything." It doesn't take a genius to figure out that's just plain stupid. The TDs should be doing all they can do to heighten the quality of a tournament, and right now they are simply running away from their responsibilities.
We simply ask that a wrong be righted, that a mistake be accepted and corrected. It is not too late to take action (in fact, I confirmed with OP that something can still be done after last week ended: https://pastebin.com/P8SZ4kkW). This isn't just a matter concerning a long-time player and his team that is currently eliminated from the tournament due to this egregious error; this is about our tournament community as a whole. This is the first step to healing the divide between authority and the bourgeoisie. This is the first step towards ridding toxicity and rebuilding trust in our community. Let us hold hands and speak together. #FreeLeftiez.
Since DPP's basically gotten no love in predictions so far, I'm gonna go ahead and do predictions for it this week before any games happen. I know that people don't really give a shit about my opinion as is, so I'm not gonna bother doing predictions for the stours gens. If anyone wants help prepping for it this week, feel free to hmu, I think that I can definitely help someone out whether or not you believe I'm an SPL level player.
DPP OU Predictions:
Bluewind vs ToF
I know that Bluewind has been better overall so far this SPL, but ToF has looked very sharp since mids, going undefeated with Laurel's added DPP support. I hope he can keep up the streak this week and bring home a win for the sharks. Bluewind could definitely take this game if he gets a solid matchup and ToF reverts back to playing as poorly as he did in some of the earlier weeks.
roscoe vs Sweepage
Sweepage is a pretty solid player, but roscoe has been the best DPP player so far this SPL imo. I think he's super high on confidence and motivation right now, so there's no reason why roscoe won't continue performing this week. I don't mean to rag on Sweepage or anything, but I just don't think he's on the same level as roscoe at DPP.
We Three Kings vs Tamahome
Malfoy is just the better overall DPP player and I think that he has a definite advantage here. After losing a disappointing 2 games already so far this season, Malfoy will definitely be motivated to put forth his best effort and come away with a win here. Moxie is still a fantastic player and I wouldn't be in shock if he were able to take this one.
Void vs NightFox
Nightfox has been bringing really solid teams all SPL, FWG + TTar type offenses that he's been very consistent with and knows how to play properly. I think that as long as NightFox sticks to his stuff this time around, he'll be able to take down Void, especially considering that I'm questioning Void's willingness to play DPP nowadays. However, if Void takes this game seriously and NightFox strays from what he's been successful with, I can definitely see this game flipping the other way.
boudouche vs d0nut
I don't have any reason to pick d0nut to win this game other than just a gut feeling that I think he's gonna bring some dumb team and blow boudouche out of the water. Realistically, boudouche should be heavily favored to win this game, but I just feel like d0nut is going to take this one home. My ideal outcome for this game would probably be boudouche winning with some sort of mono starter meme team on the el doucher alt.
for those who didn't see it, the uu game between manipulative and lycans is going to get recreated -- lcans disconnected during the later portion of the game with plenty of time left. the replay can be seen here
Like Ash N Pikachu, come back!
Go! I hit like a girl (Heracross)!
The opposing grown up used Dynamic Punch!
It's not very effective...
A critical hit!
I hit like a girl lost 85.7% of its health!
I hit like a girl became confused! Turn 3
liberty32 has 285 seconds left.
I hit like a girl is confused!
It hurt itself in its confusion!
I hit like a girl fainted!
Not much you can do when you go 4-6 down instead of being 6-5 up
i think zoms the better player in this matchup
